WHY IT MATTERS
Ohio is facing a significant slowdown in immigration that economists warn could reshape the state’s economy for decades. As federal immigration restrictions tighten and deportation operations target specific communities, including Operation Buckeye focused on removing Somali residents from central Ohio, state policymakers are examining historical precedent for how immigration crackdowns affect economic growth. Economic experts across Ohio predict the current immigration slowdown will lead to higher consumer prices, reduced small business formation, and declining tax revenue—patterns that emerged from a similar restrictionist period a century ago.
WHAT HAPPENED
Ohio has become the focus of intensive federal immigration enforcement in 2026. Immigration and Customs Enforcement launched Operation Buckeye, targeting Somali residents throughout the state, according to reporting by The Guardian. Meanwhile, the United States experienced a historic shift in immigration patterns in 2025.
Research from the Brookings Institution and American Enterprise Institute reveals that immigration to the United States dropped sharply while emigration increased. The data underscores a significant policy shift from recent decades of net population growth through immigration.
The comparison to historical policy has prompted Ohio economists and civic leaders to examine the Immigration Act of 1924, one of the most restrictive immigration laws in U.S. history. That law, championed by Congressman Albert Johnson and designed to maintain the racial composition of the country as recorded in the 1920 census, established strict quotas on immigration and is frequently discussed alongside the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882.
BY THE NUMBERS
The scale of the current immigration shift is unprecedented in recent American history. In 2025, approximately 100,000 more people left the United States than in 2024. However, nearly 2 million fewer people immigrated into the country in 2025 compared to 2024. When calculated together, immigration reductions were 19 times higher than increases in emigration, resulting in a net immigration rate near zero—the lowest in decades.
An Ohio Economic Experts Panel surveyed by Scioto Analysis provided consensus on economic impacts: nearly all economists surveyed predicted reduced small business formation, and all respondents projected lower state tax revenue. The majority also indicated expectations of higher consumer prices across Ohio.
ZOOM OUT
Ohio’s experience reflects a national trend. The 2025 immigration data represents a historic reversal from decades of net inward migration that fueled population growth and labor force expansion across the country. Similar restrictionist periods have occurred before in American history.
The Immigration Act of 1924 created a national quota system designed to limit immigration based on national origin, explicitly intended to preserve the demographic composition of the United States. Danish economists studying the long-term effects of that legislation found measurable negative impacts on regions that had relied on immigration for population and economic growth.
Economic research on the 1924 restrictions shows manufacturing productivity declined in areas affected by reduced immigration, as labor availability decreased. Population growth slowed in communities that had depended on immigration to fuel expansion. These effects persisted for extended periods, suggesting that immigration policy changes have durable economic consequences that extend beyond the initial policy implementation.
Other states with significant immigrant populations are likely facing similar economic pressures, though Ohio’s specific targeting through Operation Buckeye adds a localized enforcement dimension to broader national policy trends.
WHAT’S NEXT
Ohio policymakers will likely continue examining how immigration restrictions affect state economic performance. The Scioto Analysis Ohio Economic Experts Panel discussion has sparked broader conversation among state civic leaders about policy responses and long-term planning.
Federal deportation operations under Operation Buckeye are expected to continue, with implications for Ohio’s Somali communities and other immigrant populations. The state faces decisions about how to address predicted labor shortages, reduced business formation, and tax revenue declines through potential state-level policy adjustments.
Economic monitoring of Ohio’s labor market, small business activity, and state revenues will provide data on whether historical patterns from the 1924 restrictions repeat in the current environment. State officials will need to balance federal immigration enforcement with Ohio’s economic needs and workforce demands.