Why It Matters
North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate seat has emerged as one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 election cycle, and a new poll suggests Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper holds a substantial early advantage. The race carries significant implications for partisan control of the Senate, with national party organizations on both sides directing attention and resources toward the Tar Heel State.
The outcome could shift the balance of power in the upper chamber, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, with two independents caucusing with Democrats.
What Happened
A Catawba-YouGov survey released Tuesday, March 31, 2026, found Cooper leading Republican candidate Michael Whatley by 14 percentage points among likely North Carolina voters. The poll recorded 48% support for Cooper against 34% for Whatley when respondents who initially identified as undecided but leaned toward a candidate were included.
Excluding those soft supporters, Cooper’s advantage widens to 16 points, with 47% backing the former governor compared to 31% for Whatley. Fourteen percent of respondents remained undecided.
The two candidates are competing to fill the seat being vacated by retiring Republican U.S. Senator Thom Tillis. Cooper launched his general election campaign on March 4, 2026, at a Raleigh event. Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee, is the presumptive Republican candidate for the seat.
By the Numbers
- 48% vs. 34% — Cooper’s lead over Whatley among likely voters, including soft leaners, per the Catawba-YouGov poll
- 47% vs. 31% — Cooper’s advantage when undecided leaners are excluded
- 46% vs. 23% — Independent voter support for Cooper versus Whatley, respectively
- 48% — Cooper’s statewide approval rating among poll respondents
- 44% — Share of respondents who said they are unfamiliar with Whatley
Candidate Profiles and Voter Familiarity
A significant factor in the current polling gap appears to be name recognition. Cooper served as North Carolina’s governor from 2017 to 2025 and held four terms as state Attorney General before that, giving him a statewide profile built over decades of elected office.
Whatley, by contrast, is relatively unknown to a large segment of North Carolina voters. Forty-four percent of poll respondents indicated they were unfamiliar with him, a challenge the Republican candidate will need to address as the race develops.
Cooper’s appeal extends beyond his Democratic base. Nearly half of independent voters — 46% — said they would vote for Cooper, compared to 23% who indicated support for Whatley. Michael Bitzer, a history and politics professor at Catawba College and director of the Center for North Carolina Politics and Public Service, noted that Cooper’s cross-partisan appeal reflects his record of winning support from voters across the political spectrum during his time in office.
Zoom Out
North Carolina presents an unusual electoral landscape for this race. While Cooper leads by double digits in the Catawba-YouGov survey, the state has trended Republican in recent federal elections. President Donald Trump carried North Carolina three times, most recently defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by 3.2 percentage points in November 2024. The state has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Kay Hagan, who served from 2009 to 2015.
Other polls conducted this month by Carolina Journal, Healthier United, and Carolina Forward also show Cooper ahead of Whatley, though by smaller margins than the Catawba-YouGov survey. The variation in results across polls suggests the race remains fluid at this early stage.
National Democrats have identified the North Carolina Senate seat as one of their strongest pickup opportunities in the 2026 midterm cycle, and national Republican organizations are expected to invest heavily in defending it.
What’s Next
Both candidates are expected to continue building their campaign infrastructure and fundraising operations ahead of the 2026 primary and general election. Whatley will likely focus on improving voter recognition across the state, while Cooper’s campaign will work to consolidate support and expand his independent voter coalition.
Additional polling from independent and partisan organizations is expected in the coming months as the race attracts more national attention and campaign spending ramps up heading into the fall election season.