National Focus Shifts to Wisconsin’s 1st District
With fewer than 50 days remaining before the midterm elections, national political organizations are intensifying their efforts in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District. The race between incumbent Republican Rep. Bryan Steil and challenger Mitchell Berman has drawn significant attention from both parties, marking a shift in strategy for Democrats who are increasingly targeting districts that President Donald Trump won by wide margins in 2024.
Berman, a former nurse at a Veterans Affairs hospital, is challenging Steil in a district that has been reliably Republican for decades. The contest represents part of a broader Democratic effort to flip seats previously considered safe for the GOP.
Campaign Spending and Polling Data
Financial support from national groups highlights the competitive nature of the race. Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., plans to spend $90,000 to boost Steil’s campaign. The same PAC intends to allocate $21,000 to support U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District. These spending figures were reported by The New York Times.
On the Democratic side, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) announced on Tuesday that it has added Berman to its “Red to Blue” program. This initiative focuses resources on competitive districts where Democrats aim to gain ground against Republican incumbents.
National polling suggests a favorable environment for Democrats in Wisconsin. A Marquette Law School poll of likely voters, released earlier this week, found Democrats leading Republicans by 13 points on a generic ballot. The survey indicates that national headwinds may be affecting local races across the state.
Historical Context and Party Strategy
Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District has not elected a Democrat since Peter Barca left office in 1995. Republicans have won the seat by large margins in every congressional election since 1998. Steil was first elected to the House in 2018, following the retirement of former Speaker Paul Ryan.
In that 2018 cycle, the DCCC supported Randy Bryce’s bid against Steil when the seat opened for the first time in more than two decades. Steil defeated Bryce by more than 12 points. That election also saw Democrats regain control of the House nationally, but Wisconsin’s 1st District remained firmly in Republican hands.
The current dynamic reflects a broader trend identified by The New Republic, which reported that Republicans are being forced to devote resources to defending seats that were previously secure. Trump’s PAC is focusing its spending on districts where he won by more than five points two years ago, signaling an effort to protect vulnerable incumbents.
Campaign Messaging
Rachel La Due, a spokesperson for the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, emphasized economic concerns in her assessment of Steil’s record. She stated that voters in the district are frustrated with legislation they believe increases costs for working families while benefiting wealthy donors and political allies.
Steil has been active in high-profile legislative efforts since Trump returned to the White House. He served as one of the lead authors of a bill championed by the president to implement strict national voter identification requirements. This involvement has kept Steil visible on the national stage, potentially drawing more scrutiny from opponents.
Zach Bannon, a spokesperson for the National Republican Campaign Committee, dismissed Berman’s campaign as out of touch with voters in the district. The NRCC maintains that Steil’s record and alignment with the administration resonate with constituents in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District.