Why It Matters
Arizona will shoulder the largest share of water cuts under a newly announced federal plan to stabilize the drought-strained Colorado River over the next two years. The agreement sets the stage for negotiations over a long-term water-sharing arrangement, but deepening disagreement between upper and lower basin states raises the prospect of extended legal conflict over one of the nation’s most consequential water systems.
What Happened
The federal government announced Friday a two-year Colorado River reduction plan requiring Arizona, California, and Nevada to cut water usage significantly through 2028. Arizona will reduce consumption by 760,000 acre-feet annually — roughly equivalent to the water needed to supply three homes for a year, multiplied by more than 250,000 times. California will cut 440,000 acre-feet per year, while Nevada will reduce usage by 50,000 acre-feet annually.
The three Lower Basin states have also committed to conserving an additional 700,000 acre-feet of water through the end of 2028, bringing total reductions well beyond the federally mandated 1.25 million acre-feet collective cut. Arizona Department of Water Resources director Tom Buschatzke stated that “the actions in the Lower Basin in recent decades to protect the system have demonstrated how much we can accomplish when we all join together as part of the solution.”, as first reported by the Arizona Mirror
The agreement comes as water levels in Lake Powell and Lake Mead fell to their lowest point since 1957 last month. A 25-year megadrought has decreased Colorado River flows by more than 20 percent since 2000, pushing reservoirs dangerously close to what water engineers call “deadpool” — the elevation below which water cannot flow past dams by gravity.
By the Numbers
760,000 acre-feet — Arizona’s annual water reduction under the plan
440,000 acre-feet — California’s annual reduction
50,000 acre-feet — Nevada’s annual reduction
1.25 million acre-feet — total collective reduction required for 2027 and 2028
700,000 acre-feet — additional conservation committed through 2028
40 million people — population in seven states and Mexico served by Colorado River water
20% — decrease in river flows since 2000
Zoom Out
The Colorado River water crisis reflects a structural imbalance built into western water law. The 1922 Colorado River Compact divided water rights among seven states based on assumptions of river flow that have not materialized in decades. Upper Basin states — Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming — have resisted mandatory cuts during dry years, placing nearly all burden on the three Lower Basin states that have already implemented major conservation measures over recent decades.
California’s Colorado River Commissioner JB Hamby told the Arizona Mirror that “California, Arizona, and Nevada have shown that states can compromise, make difficult decisions, and reduce water use when the river demands it.” The Colorado River supplies water to 30 Native American tribes and supports agriculture and hydroelectric generation across the region. Colorado’s snowpack reached a record low this year, further pressuring the system.
Litigation Horizon
Arizona has prepared for possible legal action, retaining the law firm Sullivan & Cromwell in March to explore litigation options. Basin states have been negotiating an updated agreement for approximately three years, but the two-year reduction plan announced this week does not resolve the fundamental disagreement over long-term cost-sharing of the drought.
What’s Next
Basin states will continue negotiating a long-term water-sharing agreement beyond 2028. If negotiations fail, Arizona and other Lower Basin states may pursue litigation over water rights and federal management of the river — a dispute that would likely reach the U.S. Supreme Court. The two-year plan provides temporary stability but leaves unresolved the question of how the Colorado River’s diminished flows will be apportioned among competing states and water users for decades to come.