Why It Matters
Arizona’s primary elections on Tuesday shaped the state’s November matchups in several high-stakes races, with Trump-endorsed candidates advancing to face Democratic incumbents in what national analysts view as two of the country’s most competitive congressional districts. The results signal the direction of the Republican Party in a battleground state that will likely prove decisive in the 2026 midterms.
What Happened
U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs won the Republican nomination for Arizona governor, positioning him to challenge incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs in the general election. Biggs, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, refused to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election and had cited President Trump’s unverified claims of a stolen election.
Alexander Kolodin secured the GOP nomination for Arizona secretary of state. Kolodin participated in lawsuits that challenged the legitimacy of the 2020 election results in the state.
In Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, Jay Feely, a Trump-endorsed former NFL kicker, won the Republican primary, defeating Joseph Chaplik, a former Arizona state lawmaker who also served in the House Freedom Caucus. On the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego was leading over Marlene Galan-Woods, who had switched party affiliation from Republican to Democrat in 2018 and received backing from Senator Mark Kelly.
In Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani ran unopposed in the primary and will advance to face Democrat JoAnna Mendoza, a military veteran with two Iraq deployments and one tour in Afghanistan. Ciscomani was elected in 2022 and reelected in 2024.
In the 4th Congressional District, incumbent Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton defeated progressive challenger Kai Newkirk in the Democratic primary.
By the Numbers
3 points — Trump’s margin of victory in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District in 2024
Less than 2 points — Biden’s margin of victory in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District in 2020
Less than 1 point — Trump’s margin of victory in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District in 2024; also his margin of loss in the same district in 2020
50 percent — Ciscomani’s share of the vote in his 2024 reelection
2 — The number of nationally competitive congressional toss-ups located in Arizona out of 18 such districts nationwide
Zoom Out
Arizona has emerged as one of the most closely divided battleground states in American politics. The Cook Political Report, which tracks competitive races, shifted its assessment of the gubernatorial race from toss-up to slight Democratic advantage following the primary results, suggesting analyst confidence in Hobbs’s position relative to Biggs.
The state’s congressional races remain nationally significant markers of partisan strength. Two of the eighteen House districts considered toss-ups by national analysts are located in Arizona, underscoring the state’s role in determining which party controls the chamber. The narrow margins in both the 1st and 6th Districts—where Trump’s performance shifted by fewer than three points between 2020 and 2024—indicate the volatility of Arizona’s electorate.
What’s Next
Biggs will face Governor Hobbs in a marquee gubernatorial contest that will likely draw significant national attention and resources. Meanwhile, Feely and Ciscomani will advance as Trump-backed Republican nominees in two of the nation’s most hotly contested congressional races. Democratic nominees are still being determined in at least one district. The November general election will test whether voter preferences have shifted since 2022, when Hobbs defeated Republican Kari Lake and Democrats performed better than historical midterm trends might have predicted. Arizona Supreme Court decisions on election procedures and election enforcement policies may also influence how voters view election integrity issues heading into the fall.