Why It Matters
The delayed rollout of a major automotive manufacturing complex in West Tennessee is reshaping population expectations across the region. Only half of the 21 counties in West Tennessee met or exceeded their 2025 population growth forecasts, signaling that the economic boost from the planned facility has not yet materialized as anticipated.
What Happened
Ford Motor Company and SK On announced the BlueOval City automotive manufacturing hub in Stanton, Haywood County, in 2021. The project was expected to transform the region’s economy and reverse decades of population decline, but successive production delays and changes in corporate structure have dampened growth expectations.
The Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development released its 2026 Certified Population Report on July 1, revealing that two-thirds of West Tennessee counties recorded some growth since 2022. However, the report indicated that population gains fell short of projections in most counties.
Ford’s timeline for the facility has shifted significantly. The company initially planned to begin producing electric pickup trucks in 2025 but now projects gas-powered truck production to start in 2029. SK On Tennessee, which took full control of the joint venture in May, plans to launch battery system production in 2028. As of December 2025, Ford employed approximately 80 people at the site. A layoff of 150 employees occurred in March, with SK On operating a core team of about 100 people as of late May.
Haywood County, home to the manufacturing campus, experienced population decline despite earlier growth expectations. The county lost about 500 residents since 2022 and fell significantly short of its 2025 population projection.
By the Numbers
14 of 21 — West Tennessee counties with 2026 populations exceeding pre-BlueOval City estimates
17,042 — Haywood County’s estimated 2026 population
19,755 — Haywood County’s 2025 population projection (difference: 2,713 below estimate)
3.44% — Fayette County’s growth rate from 2022 to 2026 (highest in region)
2029 — Revised target year for Ford gas-powered truck production
2028 — Target year for SK On battery system production
$900 million — State-sponsored incentives package
2032 — Deadline for job creation targets tied to the incentive agreement
Zoom Out
Before the BlueOval City announcement, Tennessee’s State Data Center projected that 13 of 21 West Tennessee counties would experience population decline between 2022 and 2030. The manufacturing facility was expected to reverse that trend by attracting workers and spurring regional development.
The project represented one of the largest private manufacturing investments announced in Tennessee in recent years, with an estimated cost of $5.6 billion. The partnership projected 2,300 jobs at the Ford truck plant and 3,500 at the battery manufacturing facility. However, production timelines have extended well beyond original targets, delaying the economic impact that counties had anticipated.
Southern, midsized cities have led population gains across the region between 2024 and 2025, but smaller and more rural counties—particularly those dependent on the automotive project—have struggled to attract and retain residents.
What’s Next
The automotive manufacturing campus occupies 6 square miles in Haywood County, and both companies remain committed to completing the facilities, albeit on a longer timeline. With the 2032 deadline for job creation targets approaching, the state and local governments will monitor whether the revised production schedules deliver the employment and population growth promised in the original incentive agreement. Haywood County is projected to add 7,446 residents by 2035, representing a 42.4% population increase if targets are met—but interim benchmarks will determine whether that projection holds as production dates continue to evolve.