Why It Matters
A new study reveals that Oregon voters’ approval of Measure 114 in 2022 triggered a dramatic spike in firearm purchases, even though the law has never taken effect. The findings underscore how pending gun restrictions can drive immediate consumer behavior, regardless of legal status or implementation timeline.
What Happened
Researchers from Oregon State University, University of Oregon, and the National Bureau of Economic Research analyzed firearm background check data surrounding Measure 114’s passage and found a striking pattern. Background checks—a proxy for gun sales in Oregon—rose 14% in the runup to the November 2022 election. Immediately after voters approved the measure by a 1.3% margin, background checks jumped 157% compared to baseline levels.
The law itself imposes a permit requirement, mandates firearm safety training, bans high-capacity magazines, and requires universal background checks for all gun purchases. Despite passage in 2022, Measure 114 remains blocked by legal challenge pending a ruling from the Oregon Supreme Court. In 2024, state lawmakers voted to allow the measure to take effect in 2028 if the court upholds it.
The research, published in July in the Journal of Public Economics, quantified the surge: an estimated 63,000 additional background checks occurred in the year and a half following the election that would not have taken place absent the measure’s passage.
By the Numbers
1.3% — margin by which Measure 114 passed in 2022
14% — background check increase during the pre-election period
157% — background check increase immediately after Measure 114’s passage
63,000 — additional background checks attributed to Measure 114’s passage over eighteen months
Nearly 400,000 — background checks completed in Oregon in 2022
More than 297,000 — background checks completed in Oregon in 2025
2028 — year Measure 114 is permitted to take effect if courts uphold the law
Zoom Out
The Oregon findings align with national patterns observed when gun restrictions face implementation. Voters and prospective buyers often accelerate purchases in response to the prospect of new regulations, whether state-level or federal. This “pull-forward” effect—where consumers act in advance of restrictions becoming law—has been documented in other states and at the federal level during periods of regulatory uncertainty.
Oregon’s experience also reflects the broader tension between voter-approved measures and judicial review. Measure 114 narrowly passed, yet legal challenges have prevented its implementation for nearly four years, leaving the law in limbo while background check volumes have declined substantially since the initial spike.
What’s Next
The Oregon Supreme Court’s ruling on Measure 114 remains pending. If upheld, the law would take effect in 2028 under the timeline lawmakers established. Researchers cautioned about the composition of the surge in purchases. Katie Bollman, an assistant professor of economics at Oregon State University, noted that “the magnitude of the increase is pretty remarkable, as is the underlying dynamic driving it.” Elizabeth McKanna, chairwoman of Lift Every Voice Oregon, told the Oregon Capital Chronicle that advocates “just hope they weren’t people who wouldn’t have qualified,” raising questions about whether accelerated buyers would have passed enhanced background check requirements.