Why It Matters
Democratic U.S. Rep. Seth Magaziner leads Republican challenger Victor Mellor in Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District, with a smaller margin among independent voters than among likely Democratic voters.
What Happened
A poll released Tuesday by Salve Regina University’s Pell Center found Magaziner supported by 52% of respondents, compared with 39% for Mellor. Seven percent were undecided.
Among independent voters, Magaziner received 44% support and Mellor received 39%. Katie Sonder cautioned that the results are not predictive, saying, “I would point to the independents in this race,” and adding, “That’s really close.”
The survey was conducted by Embold Research from Oct. 5 to 8 through online recruitment and text messaging. It covered the entire state, although the margin of error is larger for specific respondent groups, including individual congressional districts.
The poll also measured Rhode Island’s other congressional and U.S. Senate races. Democratic Rep. Gabe Amo led Republican challenger Kellie Keenan in the 1st Congressional District, 52% to 33%. Democratic Sen. Jack Reed led Republican challenger Raymond McKay, 55% to 32%.
By the Numbers
13 points — Magaziner’s lead over Mellor
52% — support for Magaziner
39% — support for Mellor
7% — undecided respondents
44% — independent voter support for Magaziner
90% — likely Democratic voter support for Magaziner
815-person — survey sample size
3.6 percentage points — poll margin of error
Zoom Out
A WPRI/Emerson College poll released Oct. 13 showed Magaziner leading Mellor, 55% to 39%. That survey sampled slightly more independent voters than the Pell Center poll.
The Pell Center results showed Democratic candidates ahead in all three measured races, with different margins among the statewide Senate contest, the 1st Congressional District and the 2nd Congressional District.
What’s Next
The Rhode Island congressional and Senate races remain subject to additional polling. Sonder’s warning means the survey results should be treated as a snapshot rather than a prediction of the election outcome.