Why It Matters
A federal appeals court has ended a legal challenge to the Census Bureau’s 2020 enumeration procedures, blocking an effort by Republican groups and U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds to overturn census results that had reshaped Florida’s congressional maps. The ruling prevents a reopening of decennial census data that forms the basis for legislative redistricting nationwide.
What Happened
A three-judge federal court in Tampa dismissed the lawsuit on Tuesday with prejudice, meaning it cannot be refiled. The case challenged the Census Bureau’s statistical methods during the 2020 census, alleging constitutional and federal law violations.
The lawsuit was originally filed in September by America First Legal, a nonprofit founded by White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller. The University of South Florida College Republicans, led by president Michael Fusella, and the Pinellas County Young Republicans, led by president Parisa Mousavi, served as initial plaintiffs. Donalds joined the case in November.
The legal theory evolved over time. America First Legal first alleged the Census Bureau’s 2020 process was unconstitutional. After the court dismissed the case in February, the organization filed an amended complaint, this time arguing that the Census Bureau’s COVID-19 pandemic decisions led to inaccurate results.
The court previously ruled that plaintiffs had waited too long to file suit. The 2020 Census was finalized nearly five years before litigation began.
Florida officials had backed the effort. Governor Ron DeSantis supported the challenge, and Attorney General James Uthmeier wrote to the Census Bureau in August requesting a manual recount. Uthmeier also filed a petition with the Census Bureau in April.
The state did have measurable grievances. According to a post-enumeration survey released by the Census Bureau in 2022, Florida experienced an undercount of 3.48%, representing approximately 760,000 people. The state’s whole-person imputation rate—the rate at which the Bureau filled in missing data without actual responses—was 3.6%, higher than the nationwide rate of 3.4%.
Despite these disparities, the court sided with those opposing the challenge. The Elias Law Group filed the motion to dismiss on behalf of the Alliance for Retired Americans and two University of Central Florida students. A partner at the firm, David Fox, stated: “For the second time in six months, a federal court has thrown out this reckless attack on the Census process.”
By the Numbers
3.48% — Florida’s undercount rate in the 2020 Census
760,000 — the approximate number of people Florida was undercounted by
3.6% — Florida’s whole-person imputation rate
3.4% — the nationwide whole-person imputation rate
11 — number of states with a whole-person imputation rate of 3.6% or higher
68 — number of pages in the court’s decision
Zoom Out
Census accuracy has become increasingly contentious in recent election cycles. The decennial count determines not only congressional representation but also federal funding allocation to states and counties. A undercount can reduce a state’s House seats and its share of federal grants across housing, transportation, and other programs.
Challenges to census methodology are rare and face steep legal barriers. Courts have generally held that redistribution of Census data years after the official count has been certified is not a remedy available to plaintiffs. Florida was not alone in experiencing demographic shifts between 2010 and 2020; however, the state’s undercount was notable enough that state leadership pursued formal redress.
The Florida Legislature responded to the reapportionment by passing a redistricted map in late April, which Governor DeSantis signed into law in May. Those maps remain in effect and are now insulated from census-based legal challenge.
What’s Next
With the federal court’s dismissal final, the Census Bureau’s 2020 enumeration stands without further legal impediment. Absent congressional action to modify census law, the 2030 Census will follow existing procedures, though debates over methodology are likely to resurface as that count approaches.