Why It Matters
The administration’s push to restrict mail-in voting could reshape the electoral landscape in key battleground states, where Democrats have historically relied on absentee ballots at higher rates than Republicans. As the 2026 midterm elections approach, these policy shifts may influence which party secures control of critical House and Senate seats.
What Happened
President Donald Trump has framed his opposition to mail-in voting as essential for Republican electoral success, issuing an executive order that directs the U.S. Postal Service to enforce new requirements for ballot handling. The administration argues these measures are necessary to maintain public confidence and enhance election integrity.
Fair Fight Action, a nonpartisan voting rights organization, analyzed vote-by-mail data from seven swing states that were competitive in 2024 or are projected as battlegrounds for 2026. The analysis found that Democrats voted by mail more frequently than Republicans across the examined states.
In Michigan, more than 2 million voters cast mail ballots in the 2024 election. Democrats comprised nearly half of those mail voters, while Republicans accounted for 39 percent. This created a partisan gap of approximately 200,000 votes in favor of Democrats in the state’s absentee voting totals.
North Carolina showed similar trends, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by about eight percentage points among mail voters in 2024. However, mail ballots represented only about 5 percent of all votes cast in that state during the election cycle.
The White House defends the new postal regulations as common-sense security measures. Lauren Bis, a White House spokeswoman, described the rule as focused on technical specifications rather than election regulation. The Postal Service maintains its guidelines include modest technical requirements designed to improve service reliability.
By the Numbers
7 — number of swing states and potential battlegrounds analyzed by Fair Fight Action
2 million+ — voters who cast mail ballots in Michigan during 2024
39% — share of Michigan mail voters who were Republicans
200,000 — approximate Democratic advantage in Michigan mail voting
8 percentage points — Democratic lead over Republicans in North Carolina mail voting
5% — share of total votes cast by mail in North Carolina
5-point — Republican margin in Arizona mail voting
5.5-point — Trump’s victory margin in Arizona overall
Zoom Out
The partisan divide in mail voting has evolved since 2020, when Democrats were nearly twice as likely to vote by mail compared to Republicans (60 percent to 32 percent). By 2024, that gap narrowed significantly, with Democrats outpacing Republicans 37 percent to 24 percent among absentee voters.
States with higher overall rates of mail-in voting tend to show smaller partisan gaps. In Arizona, where 83 percent of voters cast ballots by mail in 2024, Republicans held a 5-point margin among those voters. Trump won the state’s general election by 5.5 points.
Nevada presented an almost even split among Democrat, Republican, and other party voters using mail ballots in 2024. A Stanford University study found that universal mail ballot policies did not advantage either major party but modestly increased overall voter turnout.
Mail voting enjoyed broad bipartisan support until 2020, when Trump began publicly opposing the practice. He posted on social media in May 2020 that mail-in voting would lead to massive fraud and the end of the Republican Party. In August 2025, he announced plans to lead a movement to eliminate mail-in ballots entirely.
Fair Fight Action CEO Lauren Groh-Wargo criticized the administration’s approach, stating that Trump has undermined trust in vote-by-mail systems. The organization’s analysis suggests that restricting absentee voting could help Republicans win key congressional seats in 2026 by reducing Democratic turnout advantages.
What’s Next
The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on whether the Postal Service’s new mail ballot requirements can remain in effect for the upcoming midterm elections. The decision will determine whether states must implement these restrictions or if courts will block them before voters head to the polls.