Why It Matters
Economic anxiety among rural Americans is testing President Donald Trump’s political standing ahead of the midterm elections, with new polling data revealing significant dissatisfaction regarding cost-of-living pressures.
What Happened
A recent KFF-AP poll surveyed more than 2,000 rural registered voters over a two-week period beginning in mid-August. The results indicate that approximately half of these voters believe the economy is worse off now than when President Trump returned to office. This sentiment cuts across party lines, with broadly negative views on both national and local economic conditions among rural Republicans, Democrats, and independents.
Costs for groceries, gasoline, and healthcare emerged as the primary pain points for respondents. A larger share of rural voters expressed worry about affording these essentials compared to the general electorate. While about half of rural voters approve of Trump’s overall job performance—a figure higher than the approval rate among U.S. adults in separate AP-NORC polling—only about 4 in 10 rural voters approve of his handling of the economy.
Rural voters also rated Trump similarly on his management of the Iran war, a conflict that has contributed to increased oil and gas prices. When asked about priorities, rural respondents placed pocketbook concerns and government fraud above gun policy and abortion rights.
Voter Perspectives
Individual voter experiences reflect this broader ambivalence. Ed Westrick, a 59-year-old registered Republican and veteran from rural Texas, described Trump’s performance as “mediocre, middle-of-the-road.” Westrick, who works as a technical trainer in the electronics industry with defense contractors, remains undecided about whether he will vote in the upcoming midterm election.
In Michigan, Brittainy Sosebee, a 37-year-old independent voter from St. Johns, also expressed uncertainty about voting in the state’s midterms. Her voting history includes support for Trump in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020, and abstention in 2024.
Kathleen Hanning, a 71-year-old Democrat from Woolwich, Maine, noted she stopped voting for Republican Sen. Susan Collins in 2020, reflecting shifting allegiances among older rural voters.
By the Numbers
more than 2,000 — number of rural registered voters polled
About half — share of rural voters believing economy is worse off than when Trump returned to office
4 in 10 — share of rural voters approving of Trump’s performance on the economy
three-quarters — share of rural voters rating cost of living as “only fair” or “poor”
about half — share in 2017 KFF-Washington Post survey rating cost of living as “only fair” or “poor”
6 in 10 — rural Republican voters saying Trump improved national economy
45% — rural Republican voters saying Trump improved their local economies
17% — rural voters who said Trump’s healthcare policies had a “positive impact” on their costs
Zoom Out
Tim Slack, a sociology professor at Louisiana State University, noted that many rural residents connect rising cost-of-living issues directly to Trump’s policies, including the Iran war, tariffs, and trade wars. The data shows a stark divide between national and local economic perceptions among Republicans. While about 6 in 10 rural Republican voters say Trump improved the national economy, only 45% believe he improved their local economies.
Healthcare policy has also failed to resonate with rural voters. Despite Republican leaders promoting efforts to lower drug costs and a $50 billion rural health program, only 17% of rural voters said Trump’s healthcare policies had a “positive impact” on their costs. Forty-one percent reported no impact, while another 41% cited a negative impact.
The signature tax-break-and-spending-cut bill passed last year reduces federal Medicaid spending by roughly $900 billion over a decade, though it includes billions for the Rural Health Transformation Program. These structural changes have not yet translated into perceived benefits for many rural residents.
What’s Next
As the midterm elections approach, President Trump and Republican leaders face the challenge of converting national economic narratives into local voter confidence. With about 1 in 4 rural Republicans reporting fewer good-paying jobs in their communities than five years ago, the administration must address persistent cost-of-living concerns to secure rural support.