Why It Matters
President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Steve Hilton in California’s gubernatorial race could prevent a Republican lockout scenario in the June 2 primary while paradoxically reducing the party’s already slim chances of winning the governorship in November. The intervention comes as Democratic Party leaders had worried that a crowded field of eight major candidates could split the vote enough to allow two Republicans to advance under the state’s top-two primary system.
California has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011, and Democrats hold substantial registration advantages in the deep-blue state.
What Happened
Trump posted his endorsement of Hilton, a former television commentator, on Truth Social late Sunday. The move effectively elevates Hilton over Chad Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff, who had been running competitively in the Republican field.
In his statement, Trump criticized Democratic governance of California, citing population flight, rising crime, and high tax rates. Hilton welcomed the endorsement, saying he was grateful for the president’s support in turning California around.
The endorsement follows a Democratic internal poll showing Hilton and Bianco tied in the mid-teen percentage range, while the leading Democratic candidates each registered no higher than 10 percent support.
By the Numbers
Sixty-one candidates will appear on the California gubernatorial primary ballot. Recent polling shows Hilton and Bianco each drawing support in the mid-teens among likely voters. The eight serious Democratic contenders are polling at 10 percent or lower individually. Mail voting begins in approximately four weeks, with the primary election set for June 2.
Under California’s top-two primary system, the two highest vote-getters advance to the November general election regardless of party affiliation.
Zoom Out
The scenario mirrors strategic maneuvering from the 2024 U.S. Senate race, when Democrat Adam Schiff’s campaign indirectly supported Republican Steve Garvey’s advancement to the general election to avoid facing Democratic challenger Katie Porter in November. Schiff went on to win the seat.
Political analysts note that Trump’s endorsement may save Democratic groups tens of millions of dollars they would have otherwise spent elevating one Republican candidate to prevent a same-party lockout in the general election.
What’s Next
The Trump endorsement is expected to consolidate Republican voters behind Hilton, making a two-Republican finish less likely. Democratic candidates, including former Congresswoman Katie Porter, billionaire Tom Steyer, and Congressman Eric Swalwell, remain in a tight race for the top spots among their party’s field.
Democrats will need to coalesce around one or two leading candidates before mail voting begins to ensure advancement to the November election. Party strategists acknowledge that despite Trump’s intervention, the crowded Democratic field still poses risks with less than a month before ballots go out.