Why It Matters
With Rhode Island’s Democratic primary set for September 9, a new poll shows Governor Dan McKee narrowing his deficit against challenger Helena Buonanno Foulkes—but still trailing significantly as the state grapples with voter disapproval of both candidates’ handling of major crises.
What Happened
A survey by Emerson College Polling released by WPRI-TV 12 on Tuesday found McKee backed by 30% of likely Democratic primary voters, while Foulkes held 45%—a 15-point spread that represents McKee’s smallest deficit in public polling this year. The survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted August 21-22, marks the first time the gap between the two candidates has narrowed below 20 percentage points.
McKee gained 10 percentage points since May, when the same polling firm measured his support at 20%. Foulkes increased her lead by 5 points during the same period. Among the 25% of primary voters remaining undecided, when forced to choose, Foulkes’ advantage widened to 22 points, suggesting limited room for McKee to gain ground among uncommitted voters.
Foulkes led across nearly all demographic and political segments. She held advantages among registered Democrats, independents, all age groups, and both genders. McKee’s sole bright spot was a 1-point edge over Foulkes among labor-affiliated primary voters—a constituency crucial in Democratic primaries. McKee has secured endorsements from the state teachers’ unions and Rhode Island Council 94, while the Rhode Island AFL-CIO declined to endorse in the primary, marking the first time in decades the federation has not backed an incumbent Democratic governor.
Early voting began this week. McKee announced a “Rule of 90” pension benefit pledge on the first day of voting, a proposal affecting fiscal 2028 budget calculations.
By the Numbers
30% — McKee’s support among Democratic primary voters
45% — Foulkes’ support among Democratic primary voters
10 points — McKee’s gain from May polling
1,000 — total voters surveyed
522 — Democratic primary voters in sample
September 9 — primary election date
4.2% — credibility interval for Democratic primary questions
Disapproval on Two Fronts
Beyond the primary numbers, the poll revealed substantial voter dissatisfaction with both candidates’ handling of policy crises. Nearly half of all 1,000 voters surveyed disapproved of Foulkes’ handling of the opioid crisis at CVS, with 4 in 10 Democrats specifically disapproving of her record on the matter. Only 15% of voters approved of Foulkes’ opioid response.
McKee faced different criticism. Nearly two-thirds of voters disapproved of his handling of the Washington Bridge closure and rebuild, a project that has drawn scrutiny over delays and failed procurement timelines. Only 18% approved of McKee’s bridge management. The first request for proposals drew no bidders; the second timeline projects completion in November 2028.
Overall favorability measures showed challenges for both. Six in 10 voters viewed McKee unfavorably, while nearly half of registered Democrats disapproved of him. Foulkes held 37% disapproval but only 34% approval among voters surveyed.
Zoom Out
The tightening primary reflects broader patterns in Democratic gubernatorial primaries nationwide, where incumbent governors face mounting pressure from both policy failures and challenger momentum. McKee’s 10-point gain suggests his campaign strategy is gaining some traction, but the persistent 15-point gap indicates structural advantages for Foulkes—including superior name recognition and backing from key party constituencies. The AFL-CIO’s decision to remain neutral, typically a signal of incumbent vulnerability, underscores organizational cracks in McKee’s coalition.
What’s Next
With early voting underway, both candidates will compete for the undecided plurality through September 9. McKee must accelerate gains among primary voters to close the 15-point deficit, while Foulkes will seek to consolidate her lead and keep her disapproval ceiling from widening further. The primary will largely determine the general-election composition in what has become one of the nation’s more competitive gubernatorial races.