NHL Stanley Cup Futures: Why Betting Favorites Like Colorado, Tampa Bay May Disappoint in 2026 Playoffs
Why It Matters
With the NHL playoffs approaching, New York-area hockey fans and sports bettors across the country are weighing their Stanley Cup futures picks carefully. The betting market for the 2026 Stanley Cup has shifted dramatically in recent weeks, raising serious questions about whether the heavy chalk — led by the Colorado Avalanche — represents real value heading into the postseason.
For bettors, misreading a team’s true playoff form can mean costly futures wagers on teams whose best hockey may already be behind them.
What Happened
The Colorado Avalanche entered the 2025–26 NHL season as one of several co-favorites, alongside the Hurricanes, Oilers, Panthers, Golden Knights, and Stars. Colorado separated itself early with a historic start, going 16-1-3 in their first 20 games.
By the midpoint of the season, the Avalanche stood at 31-3-7 and had pulled so far ahead on the betting board that they reached +220 favorites at the Olympic Break, creating what analysts described as a “Colorado vs. the Field” dynamic.
Since then, the picture has changed considerably. While Colorado clinched the Presidents’ Trophy and never relinquished first place in the Central Division, the team won just 19 of its last 35 games and ranked 14th in points percentage in the NHL during that stretch.
The Tampa Bay Lightning have followed a similar arc. After a torrid run in the middle of the campaign that made them odds-on to win the Atlantic Division, the Bolts went just 12-11-2 in their last 25 games and appear likely to finish as the No. 3 seed in the Atlantic.
By the Numbers
+300 — Current Stanley Cup odds for the Colorado Avalanche, down from their peak of +220 at the Olympic Break.
+425 — Current odds for the Tampa Bay Lightning, making them the second favorites entering the final week of the regular season.
+475 — Current odds for the Carolina Hurricanes, who rank third on the futures board.
16-1-3 — Colorado’s record in their first 20 games, the historic run that established them as dominant favorites.
14th — Colorado’s ranking in NHL points percentage during the second half of the season, a significant drop from their first-half dominance.
Zoom Out
The Hurricanes carry their own set of concerns into the postseason. Carolina’s goaltending situation has once again emerged as a potential weakness — a recurring issue that has plagued the franchise in recent playoff runs. Brandon Bussi, a Long Island native who was strong in the first half, has struggled down the stretch, reopening the door for veteran Frederik Andersen to reclaim the starting role. Andersen has playoff experience but has historically faltered in high-pressure moments for Carolina, often forcing coaching changes mid-series.
Meanwhile, several teams have surged as the season winds down. The Buffalo Sabres have reportedly been the best team in hockey since the holiday break, while the Dallas Stars are not far behind. The Ottawa Senators have climbed to third in Eastern Conference futures odds on the strength of a strong late-season run. New York Islanders fans watching their own team’s playoff hopes dim may find it worth noting how volatile the Eastern Conference landscape has become this spring.
Nationally, sports bettors have long understood that regular-season dominance does not guarantee postseason success in the NHL, where hot goaltending and bracket matchups often matter more than cumulative records. New York sports fans tracking multiple teams through high-stakes stretches are familiar with how quickly momentum can shift in a short playoff series.
What’s Next
The NHL regular season enters its final week, with playoff seeding still to be finalized in several divisions. Futures prices will continue to shift as bracket matchups become clearer and teams lock in their seedings.
Bettors evaluating Stanley Cup futures will want to weigh whether Colorado and Tampa Bay — both veteran-laden rosters with championship pedigree — are simply resting ahead of the playoffs, or whether their second-half fade signals a more meaningful decline in form heading into the tournament.
With the field more wide open than it appeared at midseason, the 2026 Stanley Cup race may offer better value in mid-tier contenders than in the heavily backed favorites currently topping the board.