Why It Matters
A major progressive organization is deploying nearly $10 million to influence Arizona’s upcoming midterm elections, targeting Latino and independent voters in a state where margins have historically been razor-thin.
What Happened
Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA) announced a six-week voter mobilization campaign designed to support progressive candidates ahead of the November midterms. The group plans to invest up to $9.9 million in outreach efforts focused on federal and statewide races across Arizona.
The initiative targets at least 400,000 voters through door-knocking, phone calls, mailers, and digital outreach. LUCHA identifies Latino voters and unregistered independents as critical swing blocs capable of determining outcomes in close contests. The organization cites President Donald Trump’s deportation campaigns and racial profiling policies as primary motivators for mobilizing these demographics.
All statewide offices and two U.S. House seats are up for election in Arizona this year. Republicans have controlled the Arizona state legislature for all but two terms since 1966, a dominance LUCHA aims to disrupt. The group advocates for worker and renter policies, including mandatory paid family and medical leave and affordable housing measures, which Republican lawmakers have largely rejected.
LUCHA’s funding derives from member support, individual contributions, philanthropic donations, and its political action committee. The organization generated just under $9 million in revenue in 2024, according to available tax records.
By the Numbers
$9.9 million — Maximum investment for six-week voter outreach
400,000 — Minimum target voters for current campaign contact
630,000+ — Doors knocked on by activists in 2024
500,000+ — Voters contacted by LUCHA in both 2022 and 2024 cycles
34% — Percentage of Arizona voters unregistered with a party as of July
35% — Percentage of Arizona voters registered as Republicans
25% — Percentage of Arizona voters who are Latino (1.3 million)
280 votes — Margin of victory for Kris Mayes in 2022 attorney general race
Zoom Out
Arizona’s electorate remains highly competitive, with recent elections decided by narrow margins. In 2022, Democrat Katie Hobbs defeated Republican Kari Lake for governor by just over one percentage point. That same year, Kris Mayes was elected state attorney general with a margin of only 280 votes.
The current political landscape features stark contrasts on immigration enforcement. Governor Katie Hobbs has refused to engage in immigration enforcement actions, while her opponent, Andy Biggs, supports Trump’s deportation campaign. Similarly, Attorney General candidate Warren Petersen has vowed to aid federal agents in deporting immigrants, including DACA recipients.
Nationally, Latino voters and independents have become increasingly pivotal in swing states. With 34% of Arizona voters unaffiliated with a party as of July, these groups represent a significant portion of the electorate that could shift outcomes in tightly contested races.
What’s Next
LUCHA’s six-week outreach effort will intensify contact with targeted voter segments through multiple channels. The campaign’s success will depend on its ability to mobilize turnout among Latino and independent voters who have historically shown variable participation rates. Results from the November midterms will determine whether progressive groups can alter the long-standing Republican control of Arizona’s state legislature.