Hawaii Projected to Need 60,000 Additional Housing Units by 2050 as Population Ages
Why It Matters
Hawaii is facing a mounting housing crisis driven by an aging population and the steady departure of younger residents — a combination that threatens both the state’s workforce and its long-term economic stability. A new report warns that without significant housing development, the cycle of young families leaving the islands will accelerate, leaving fewer workers to care for an increasingly elderly population.
The findings carry serious implications for government spending, healthcare infrastructure, and the overall cost of living in one of the nation’s most expensive states.
What Happened
AARP Hawaii released a report titled “Housing Needs Gap Analysis for the State of Hawaii,” based on 2024 U.S. Census data and conducted by Econorthwest, a Portland, Oregon consulting firm. The report projects that Hawaii will need nearly 60,000 additional housing units by 2050 to meet demand driven primarily by a rapidly aging population.
Of those units, 44,000 will be needed to house residents aged 65 and older. The report frames the housing shortage not merely as a senior-care issue, but as a multigenerational economic threat — one where the inability of younger residents to afford housing is compounding the state’s workforce shortages.
“It’s not just about kūpuna needing affordable housing. When a lack of affordable housing forces young working families to leave Hawaii, the impacts are felt across generations,” Keali’i Lopez, state director of AARP Hawaii, said in a statement. “The question becomes not only where our children and grandchildren will live, but who will care for our aging parents and grandparents if families can no longer afford to stay.”
By the Numbers
~60,000 — Additional housing units Hawaii will need by 2050, according to the report.
44,000 — Units specifically needed for residents aged 65 and older.
21% — Share of Hawaii’s population aged 65 or older in 2024, up from 16% in 2016. A University of Hawaii Mānoa study projects that figure will reach 25% by 2035.
Two-thirds — Portion of the 60,000 needed units that will be required by 2035, underscoring the urgency of near-term action.
48,299 — Units needed in Honolulu County by 2050, the largest total of any county. Kauai, however, faces the steepest demand relative to its existing housing stock, needing an 18% increase over current supply.
Nearly half — Share of Hawaii-born residents between the ages of 20 and 30 who, as of 2023, were living in other states, according to U.S. Census data cited in the report.
Zoom Out
Hawaii’s housing affordability problem is not unique in scale, but its geography makes solutions unusually difficult. The state ranks third-worst nationally in retaining residents between ages 20 and 30, behind only Alaska and Wyoming — two other states defined by geographic isolation and high living costs.
Across the country, the intersection of an aging Baby Boomer generation and constrained housing supply is straining state budgets, healthcare systems, and local economies. Hawaii’s situation is made more acute by the fact that younger residents who leave often relocate to mainland states where land and construction costs are a fraction of what they are on the islands. One Central Maui resident cited in the report described her son’s move to Kentucky at age 20, where he was able to purchase land and build a home — opportunities entirely out of reach in Hawaii.
The report also flags a healthcare access concern: neighbor island residents are increasingly traveling to Oahu for specialized medical treatment, a trend it says will worsen without affordable housing to sustain a working-age population across all counties. Hawaii’s broader policy challenges, including cuts to pay for autistic student aides on neighbor islands, reflect the fiscal and workforce pressures the state is already navigating.
What’s Next
The report calls for housing development that prioritizes “aging in place” designs and smaller units affordable to seniors earning below $63,900 annually — roughly 60% of the area median income. Just under a third of new senior housing units will need to meet that affordability threshold.
Between 2014 and 2024, Hawaii added 43,000 new housing units — an 8% increase — but total households grew at a faster rate of 9.5%, meaning supply has already fallen behind demand. Lawmakers and housing officials will face pressure to accelerate development timelines, particularly as the state’s demographic tipping point approaches 2035. Whether Hawaii’s government can expand housing supply without imposing further tax burdens on residents remains an open question as the state navigates key leadership decisions heading into the next legislative cycle.