Montana voters cast ballots Tuesday in the state’s 2026 primary elections, with results coming in from Great Falls, Billings, Kalispell, Helena, Missoula, Bozeman, and communities across the state. By Wednesday morning, the Associated Press had called the Democratic primary in Montana’s First Congressional District for Sam Forstag, who will advance to face Republican nominee Aaron Flint in November.
MT-01 Democratic Primary
Forstag pulled ahead of rival Ryan Busse as returns accumulated through election night and into Wednesday, ultimately building a margin of roughly 2,900 votes. With an estimated 96 to 98 percent of ballots tallied, Forstag had collected approximately 26,000 votes to Busse’s 23,000. Russell Cleveland finished in third place with about 22 percent of the vote, while Matt Rains captured roughly 8 percent.
Forstag framed his victory in economic terms, saying in a statement that Montana voters had shown they are prepared to send working-class representation to Washington. Busse, in conceding, called on supporters to unite behind the Democratic nominee for the general election campaign against Flint, describing the Republican candidate in pointed terms.
Flint, a military veteran and conservative talk radio host, secured the Republican nomination and will face Forstag in what is expected to be a competitive general election contest this fall. A recent survey on voter appetite for ticket-splitting in Montana found limited enthusiasm among both Republican and Democratic voters for crossing party lines, suggesting the November race could hinge heavily on base turnout.
PSC-5 Race Still Close
One of the more competitive Republican primaries of the night was in the Public Service Commission District 5 race, where Flathead Valley physician and sitting utility board commissioner Annie Bukacek held a lead of 786 votes over Joe Dooling with 99 percent of ballots reported. David Sanders trailed Dooling by 1,333 votes, placing him in third. The race remained uncertified as of Wednesday’s final update.
By the Numbers
Approximately 295,595 ballots were cast out of 791,131 registered voters in Montana, producing a turnout rate of roughly 37.4 percent. Of 728 total precincts statewide, 711 had fully reported results by midday Wednesday. The remaining 17 precincts were located in Hill County, where apparent tabulator malfunctions required election workers to hand-count ballots.
Under Montana law, final certified results must be submitted within 27 days of the election.
Turnout in Historical Context
The 37.4 percent participation rate places this cycle’s primary above the historical midterm average. Prior to 2018, four consecutive midterm primaries averaged 32.2 percent turnout statewide. The 2018 and 2022 primaries combined for an average of 40.5 percent, with 2018 hitting 41.6 percent and 2022 at 39.4 percent. The 2020 primary — held during an unusual election environment — drew 55 percent of registered voters. Presidential primary cycles, such as 2016, have historically run closer to 45 percent.
The 2026 figure suggests primary engagement remains elevated compared to earlier midterm cycles, though it fell short of recent high-water marks.
What’s Next
With the primary results largely settled, attention turns to November’s general election matchups. The MT-01 contest between Forstag and Flint is expected to draw significant outside attention and spending given the district’s competitive profile. The PSC-5 race result, once hand-counting in Hill County concludes, will also be subject to the state’s 27-day certification deadline.
Montana’s political landscape heading into the fall has been shaped by several converging factors, including major economic development announcements such as the planned Janicki Industries manufacturing campus in Great Falls, which could influence voter priorities on jobs and infrastructure through November.