California’s June primary elections have largely settled the competitive landscape heading into November, with results confirming that only two House districts in the state offer a genuine chance of flipping party control — an outcome with direct implications for which party holds the majority in Congress.
Why It Matters
California sends one of the largest House delegations to Washington, and the state’s handful of competitive seats often function as bellwether contests in close election cycles. With the balance of power in Congress potentially resting on a small number of races, the outcomes in California’s 22nd and 48th Districts carry outsized national significance.
A state redistricting measure, Proposition 50, reshaped the political geography of the state’s congressional map, effectively eliminating most head-to-head Republican vs. Democrat contests. Nearly all the remaining competitive matchups now pit members of the same party — primarily Democrats — against one another.
What Happened
In the 22nd District, centered on Bakersfield in the Central Valley, Republican incumbent Rep. David Valadao advanced to the general election, while two Democratic candidates battled for the second spot on the November ballot. As of Tuesday night with roughly half the votes counted, Randy Villegas — a college professor and school board trustee running on a progressive platform — led Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a physician, by approximately 1,300 votes. The outcome remained too close to call.
In the 48th District in San Diego County, Republican County Supervisor Jim Desmond will face Democrat Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego City Councilmember, in the fall. Von Wilpert edged out Ammar Campa-Najjar, a former aide in the Obama-era Labor Department, with about 55 percent of the vote tallied when the race was called.
In the 11th District covering San Francisco, State Sen. Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan secured the top two spots. Chan prevailed over Saikat Chakrabarti, a wealthy former software engineer, in part buoyed by an endorsement from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who backed Chan just two weeks before primary day. The Wiener-Chan contest in November represents a Democrat-versus-Democrat matchup.
In the 7th District near Sacramento, veteran Rep. Doris Matsui — who has served in Congress for two decades — led progressive city councilmember Mai Vang by roughly 6,000 votes with nearly half the ballots counted. Vang, who is nearly half Matsui’s age, ran a strong enough race that the gap between Vang and a Republican challenger, Zachariah Wooden, was fewer than 1,000 votes in the race for the second general election slot.
The 6th District, also in the Sacramento suburbs, featured Rep. Kevin Kiley — who previously represented the 3rd District and has since left the Republican Party to run as an independent — holding a lead of approximately 5,000 votes with about half the ballots tabulated. Behind him, former state Sen. Richard Pan and Republican Michael Stansfield were separated by fewer than 900 votes in the contest for the second spot. The field also included Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho and several other Democratic candidates.
In the 4th District in Wine Country, 75-year-old Rep. Mike Thompson advanced to November, beating back a challenge from 36-year-old Eric Jones as Thompson seeks a 15th term in Congress. For readers following California’s broader political landscape, new polling also shows early leaders emerging in the state’s open governor’s race.
By the Numbers
- 2 — Truly competitive Republican-vs.-Democrat House races remaining in California
- ~1,300 votes — Villegas’ margin over Bains in the 22nd District with roughly half votes counted
- ~6,000 votes — Matsui’s lead over Vang in the 7th District with nearly half ballots tallied
- Fewer than 900 votes — Separating second and third place in the 6th District
- 15 terms — What Rep. Mike Thompson is seeking if he wins in November
Zoom Out
California’s primary structure, driven by its top-two system, regularly produces same-party general election contests in heavily partisan districts. That dynamic concentrates genuine competitive energy into just a handful of seats each cycle. Nationally, House control has shifted on margins as thin as a few seats in recent elections, making California’s two truly competitive districts meaningful factors in broader congressional projections. California has also seen notable policy developments in other areas this year, reflecting ongoing shifts in the state’s political environment heading into the fall campaign season.
What’s Next
Several races remained uncalled as vote-counting continued into early Wednesday morning. Final primary results will determine the exact November matchups in closely contested districts including the 7th and 6th. General election campaigns across all settled races are expected to intensify through the summer, with the 22nd and 48th Districts drawing the most national attention and outside spending as the November vote approaches.