Why It Matters
Texas Republicans are confronting a potentially expensive general election battle after Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in Tuesday’s primary runoff. Party strategists warn the race could drain resources from other competitive Senate contests as the GOP defends its majority, with spending potentially reaching $100 million in a state where statewide advertising costs run into the millions per week across roughly 20 media markets.
What Happened
Paxton secured the Republican Senate nomination with President Donald Trump’s endorsement, defeating four-term Senator Cornyn in the runoff election. His Democratic opponent, state Rep. James Talarico, has raised more than $40 million through the primary and brought in an additional $600,000 within two hours of Paxton’s victory, according to his campaign.
Paxton has raised $7.6 million and reported $2.3 million cash on hand as of May 6. His campaign did not respond to requests for comment on fundraising plans.
By the Numbers
Talarico has outraised Paxton by more than 5-to-1, pulling in over $40 million compared to Paxton’s $7.6 million. GOP strategists estimate party groups may need to contribute up to $100 million to compete effectively in Texas. The Lone Star Liberty PAC, aligned with Paxton, spent more than $17 million on advertisements supporting him during the primary and runoff. MAGA Inc., the super PAC supporting Trump, held more than $350 million in its account as of April 30.
The Funding Challenge
A Republican consultant working on Senate races said the party will likely need to quadruple its original spending plans for Texas. The consultant noted that Cornyn had cultivated a network of major donors over his four terms, but those contributors may prove reluctant to support Paxton, who was impeached in 2023 on bribery and corruption charges before being acquitted by the state Senate.
George Seay, a longtime Cornyn donor, declined to say whether he would contribute to Paxton’s campaign but acknowledged the race is now “definitely in play” for Democrats. Seay questioned whether fundraising totals would ultimately determine the outcome, saying he remains “very unconvinced” that money is decisive in modern campaigns.
GOP Outside Groups Respond
Gregg Keller, who leads the Lone Star Liberty PAC supporting Paxton, said fundraising for the general election is off to “an extremely fast start” and that the group has contacted both grassroots and major donors, including some who backed Cornyn in the primary. He acknowledged matching Talarico’s fundraising would be difficult but said donor response has been positive.
The conservative Club for Growth endorsed Paxton on Tuesday night. MAGA Inc. declined to comment on its plans for Texas. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main Republican super PAC focused on Senate races and aligned with Senate Minority Leader John Thune, backed Cornyn in the primary and has not yet reserved advertising time in Texas for the fall campaign.
What’s Next
Senate Minority Leader Thune told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt that he spoke with Paxton after the primary and that Republicans need to “go all-in” to keep the Texas seat in Republican hands. The general election will test whether GOP outside groups can close the fundraising gap and whether Paxton can consolidate support from donors who backed his primary opponent.