Why It Matters
South Carolina Republicans will effectively decide the state’s next governor in June, as no Democrat has won statewide office since 2006. The GOP primary remains wide open with six candidates competing and more than a quarter of voters still undecided ahead of the June 9 election.
What Happened
A poll conducted by Lexington-based Starboard Communications shows Attorney General Alan Wilson holding a narrow lead in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Wilson drew support from 20 percent of likely GOP primary voters in the survey, which sampled 604 respondents between April 8 and April 14. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Behind Wilson, Fifth District Congressman Ralph Norman garnered 14 percent support, while First District Congresswoman Nancy Mace received 13 percent. Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette polled at 12 percent, businessman Rom Reddy at 10 percent, and State Senator Josh Kimbrell at 3 percent. Twenty-eight percent of respondents said they were unsure or declined to state a preference.
By The Numbers
Wilson led or tied for the lead among every measured Republican voter segment, including Trump supporters, evangelical voters, fiscal conservatives, and traditional GOP primary voters. The poll used a representative sample based on registration statistics, primary voting history, race, age, gender, and geography.
Norman has moved into second or third place in multiple recent surveys, representing a shift from a March poll by Quantus Insights that showed Wilson and Mace tied at 22 percent each. In that earlier survey, Evette held 16 percent support and Norman stood at 11 percent.
Zoom Out
The race to succeed term-limited Governor Henry McMaster remains fluid with no candidate approaching the majority threshold needed to avoid a runoff. South Carolina’s Republican primary effectively serves as the general election in the state, where Democrats have not won a governor’s race since 1998.
The crowded field and high percentage of undecided voters suggest the contest could extend to a runoff between the top two finishers. Recent polling indicates Norman gaining ground on the early frontrunners while lower-tier candidates struggle to gain traction.
What’s Next
South Carolina will hold partisan primary elections on June 9. If no candidate secures a majority of votes, a runoff between the top two vote-getters will occur on June 23. Campaign activity is expected to intensify as candidates compete for undecided voters and seek to consolidate support within specific Republican voting blocs.