Why It Matters
With California’s June primary weeks away, two new surveys show the state’s governor’s race remains competitive — and the outcome could determine whether any Republican advances to November on one of the nation’s most-watched ballots. The state’s top-two open primary system means the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, move forward, making current polling unusually consequential.
What Happened
Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton hold the top two positions in a new survey of 986 likely California voters conducted earlier this month by the Public Policy Institute of California. Becerra drew support from 23% of respondents, with Hilton close behind at 20%.
Liberal billionaire Tom Steyer came in third at 15%, followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 13% and U.S. Rep. Katie Porter at 12%. A separate survey released the same week by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies placed Becerra at 25%, Hilton at 21%, and Steyer at 19%, broadly confirming the PPIC findings.
Becerra, who previously served as California’s attorney general and later as Health and Human Services Secretary under former President Joe Biden, has gained ground in recent weeks following the exit of U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell from the race amid sexual misconduct allegations. Jonathan Underland, a Becerra campaign spokesperson, said the candidate “has built real momentum — strong poll numbers backed by working Californians who are energized and ready.”
Steyer’s campaign pushed back on the PPIC survey, arguing it failed to capture recent shifts in voter sentiment. The campaign cited its own internal tracking data and a separate poll conducted on behalf of Hilton to argue Steyer’s position is stronger than the public survey suggests.
Porter, who has faced questions about her campaign’s trajectory, remained in fifth place across both surveys — a difficult position given that only two candidates advance from the primary.
By the Numbers
- 23% — Becerra’s support among likely voters in the PPIC survey
- 20% — Hilton’s support in the same poll
- 986 — likely voters surveyed by PPIC earlier this month
- 75% — share of likely voters who told PPIC the country is headed in the wrong direction, the highest such reading in more than two decades
- 64% — share of likely voters who said they would back the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race if midterms were held today, compared to 35% who said they’d vote Republican
Zoom Out
The PPIC survey offered a broader window into California voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress in the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term. The 75% “wrong direction” reading is notable not just because of its magnitude, but because of its partisan spread: while 92% of Democrats expressed pessimism, so did half of Republican respondents — a sharp increase from earlier this year, when only 36% of California Republicans held that view.
Congressional ballot numbers present a challenge for Republicans nationally. If California’s 64-to-35 Democratic advantage in generic House polling holds, the party would face steep headwinds in defending its current House majority. Republicans had hoped that fielding two candidates — Hilton and Bianco — in California’s open primary might help consolidate enough right-leaning votes to lock Democrats out of the governor’s race entirely, a scenario that now appears less likely given Becerra’s lead.
Bianco’s candidacy has drawn additional scrutiny following his seizure of more than 600,000 ballots from Riverside County’s registrar earlier this year. Governor Gavin Newsom signed emergency legislation this week making such seizures illegal, with the law taking effect immediately ahead of the June 2 primary.
What’s Next
California voters head to the polls on June 2 for the open primary. The two candidates with the highest vote totals — regardless of party — will advance to the November general election. With Bianco and Porter both polling in the low-to-mid teens, the race for the second slot behind Becerra remains unsettled. Porter’s campaign has been working to recover ground in the final stretch before primary day.