Why It Matters
SpaceX’s stock performance is drawing significant investor attention as the aerospace company navigates its first weeks as a publicly traded firm on the Nasdaq. A strong second-quarter earnings report has helped reverse a post-IPO dip, offering early shareholders some reassurance after a rocky stretch following the June debut.
What Happened
SpaceX shares climbed back toward the $135 IPO price on Monday, briefly touching that benchmark in early trading before stabilizing nearby. The rebound came after the stock had slid as low as $108.27 in the days before the earnings release — a drop that coincided with growing short interest in the company, which had surpassed even that of Tesla.
The recovery was fueled by second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, well above the $6.93 billion analysts had anticipated. The beat helped reassure investors who had been watching closely as the first post-IPO lockup period expired Thursday, unlocking 911 million shares for early investors — substantially more than the 639 million shares originally sold during the June offering.
SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen said the company is on pace to reach $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by year’s end, a target that would represent a dramatic scaling from the current trajectory. The company’s Q2 run-rate stood at $31 billion.
By the Numbers
$135 — IPO price, briefly hit again in Monday’s early trading session
$108.27 — the stock’s recent low closing price, recorded just days before the earnings release
$7.81 billion — SpaceX Q2 revenue, beating the $6.93 billion consensus estimate
911 million — shares unlocked when the first lockup period expired Thursday
$200 — Citi’s near-term price target; the bank also outlined a long-term valuation level above $900 per share
Zoom Out
SpaceX’s debut on the Nasdaq placed it among the most anticipated public listings in recent memory, given the company’s dominant position in commercial launch services and satellite internet through its Starlink division. The sheer volume of shares unlocked at the first lockup expiration — nearly 43 percent more than the IPO float — created natural selling pressure that pushed the stock lower before earnings provided a floor.
The dynamic mirrors patterns seen with other high-profile technology and aerospace IPOs, where lockup expirations trigger short-term volatility before fundamental business performance reasserts itself. Short interest surpassing Tesla’s level underscored how aggressively some traders had positioned against the stock ahead of the lockup event. Rival launch company Blue Origin raised $10 billion in its first outside funding round earlier this year, signaling continued investor appetite for the commercial space sector broadly.
Citi’s bullish outlook — combining a near-term $200 price target with a long-term valuation scenario exceeding $900 per share — reflects the wide range of outcomes analysts are modeling as SpaceX scales its recurring revenue base. The $100 billion annualized revenue target Johnsen outlined would place the company among a small group of U.S. businesses operating at that scale.
What’s Next
Investor focus will likely shift to whether SpaceX can sustain the revenue trajectory that supports the CFO’s end-of-year forecast. Additional lockup periods may expire in coming months, which could introduce further supply of shares into the market and renewed price pressure depending on broader market conditions.
Citi’s reiterated buy rating and elevated price targets may attract additional institutional coverage as the company establishes its public reporting cadence. How SpaceX manages the transition from private-market pricing expectations to public scrutiny of quarterly results will be a defining test of its post-IPO period. Berkshire Hathaway, another bellwether of institutional confidence, recently posted a 16 percent earnings gain as markets broadly have rewarded companies demonstrating durable revenue growth.