Massachusetts Gov. Healey Trails in New Favorability Polls as Reelection Race Takes Shape
Why It Matters
Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey, who has built a national profile as one of the most prominent Democratic critics of President Trump, is entering her reelection year with her own approval numbers underwater — a warning sign that anti-Trump positioning alone may not be sufficient to consolidate voter support at home.
What Happened
A MassINC Polling Group survey conducted in March found 39 percent of Massachusetts voters view Healey favorably, while 45 percent view her unfavorably — a negative net rating for a sitting governor heading into a campaign. A separate Emerson College Polling survey conducted this month produced somewhat better but still tepid results: 45 percent favorable against 35 percent unfavorable, with less than a majority rating her positively.
The results come alongside reports that environmental advocates and some labor unions have expressed dissatisfaction with Healey’s first term, compounding what has been a difficult stretch for the governor’s campaign operation.
For context, a 2018 MassINC poll found then-Gov. Charlie Baker, a Republican running for reelection, held a net favorability rating of +58 points among all Massachusetts voters — a stark contrast to Healey’s current position.
By the Numbers
- 39% of Massachusetts voters view Healey favorably; 45% view her unfavorably (MassINC, March)
- 63% of Democrats and left-leaning independents rate Healey favorably; 16% unfavorably
- 45% favorable / 35% unfavorable in a separate Emerson College poll conducted this month
- President Trump’s favorability in Massachusetts: 31% favorable vs. 61% unfavorable
- Former Gov. Baker posted a +58-point net favorability rating in May 2018 ahead of his successful reelection
Income Tax Cut Polling Shows Voters Are Persuadable
The same MassINC survey tested voter sentiment on a proposed income tax reduction — and found dramatically different results depending on how the question was framed. When described simply as a rate cut from 5 percent to 4 percent phased in by 2029, two-thirds of respondents said they would support it and roughly one-quarter said they would oppose it.
The numbers shifted substantially when a fuller description was added, including an estimate that the cut would reduce state revenue by $5 billion annually and a note that the top 1 percent of earners would receive more than $30,000 in savings while the bottom 80 percent would receive roughly $500. Under that framing, support dropped to 40 percent and opposition rose to 50 percent.
“Polling on ballot questions can be extremely volatile, with many voters open to changing their minds when given new information,” said Rich Parr, vice president of MassINC Polling Group. The survey was commissioned by two advocacy organizations, Transportation for Massachusetts and the Massachusetts Voter Table. Voters may see up to 11 ballot questions this fall, making the income tax measure one of several high-stakes decisions on the horizon.
Indicted State Rep. Will Not Seek Reelection
State Rep. Chris Flanagan, a Dennis Democrat who has been under federal indictment since last year, will not appear on the September primary ballot after missing the April 28 deadline to file nomination papers with town clerks in his district. Flanagan faces federal fraud charges alleging he diverted money from a former employer to cover personal debts and purchase items including clothing and psychic services. He pleaded not guilty at the time of his arrest.
Federal prosecutors recently expanded the case against Flanagan, adding allegations that he stole a larger sum than originally charged and underreported rental income. Healey and some other elected officials had previously called for his resignation, though House leadership declined to publicly pressure him to leave while the legal proceedings continue.
Flanagan’s decision not to file for reelection means he will leave office when his term expires in January 2027. Three candidates have filed signatures to compete for the First Barnstable District seat: Dennis Select Board chair Chris Lambton, Brewster School Committee member Steven Leibowitz — both Democrats — and unenrolled candidate Joe Glynn. Whether each gathered enough certified signatures to qualify for the ballot has not yet been confirmed.
What’s Next
Healey’s reelection campaign officially enters a full six months of active campaigning. Analysts note that early poll deficits for incumbents are not necessarily predictive — former Gov. Deval Patrick faced similar headwinds in his 2010 reelection bid before recovering to defeat Baker that fall. Whether Healey can consolidate her Democratic base while keeping focus on Trump’s unpopularity in the state will likely define the trajectory of the race. Separately, the fate of the proposed income tax cut and other ballot measures could shape the policy environment heading into November.