Two Democratic candidates will face off in Montana’s June 2 primary election for the state’s Eastern Congressional District after State Sen. Jonathan Windy Boy withdrew from the race. Brian Miller and Sam Lux are competing for the chance to challenge incumbent Republican Rep. Troy Downing in the November general election.
Downing won his seat by a 32-point margin in 2024. Political analysts say the demographic makeup and voting history of the district make it extremely difficult for Democrats to compete.
Why It Matters
Montana’s Eastern Congressional District encompasses roughly two-thirds of the state’s geography, including Billings, Great Falls, and five of Montana’s seven Native American reservations. The district was created in its current form following the 2020 census, restoring Montana’s second House seat after nearly three decades with a single at-large representative.
The winner of the Democratic primary will face not only Downing but also Libertarian Patrick McCracken and possibly independent Mike Eisenhauer in November. The outcome will help determine whether Republicans maintain their current representation or if demographic shifts and national political trends can overcome the district’s Republican lean.
What Happened
Windy Boy’s exit from the race leaves Miller and Lux as the remaining Democratic contenders. Both candidates expressed confidence that President Donald Trump’s approval ratings and historical patterns favoring minority parties in midterm elections could shift the race in their favor.
Political scientists at Montana universities disagree. Jessi Bennion, who teaches at Montana State University and Carroll College, described the district as “absolutely solidly Republican” based on previous election results and voter registration data.
By The Numbers
In Billings, Montana’s largest city, 11 of 14 state House members and six of seven state senators are Republicans. Great Falls sends four of five representatives and all three state senators from the Republican Party to the state legislature.
Helena, the district’s most Democrat-friendly city, sent eight Democrats and one Republican to the Montana Legislature in 2025. The district includes five tribal reservations that typically lean Democratic.
In the district’s first election in 2022, Democratic candidate Penny Ronning lost every county to Republican Matt Rosendale.
Zoom Out
Montana restored its second congressional seat after the 2020 census showed sufficient population growth. Redistricting created a Western Congressional District containing Missoula and urban Democratic strongholds, while the Eastern District consolidated rural areas and mid-sized cities with Republican voting histories.
The division reflected a broader national trend of states gaining or losing House seats based on population shifts. Montana’s single at-large district had elected only Republican representatives since 1996.
What’s Next
The Democratic primary will take place June 2. The general election is scheduled for November 3. Both Miller and Lux face the challenge of building name recognition and fundraising capacity to compete against Downing’s established campaign infrastructure.
Political analysts say a Democratic victory would require overwhelming margins in Helena and on tribal reservations, combined with competitive showings in Billings and Great Falls—a combination no Democrat has achieved in the district’s brief history.