L.A. Homicides at Lowest Levels Since 1960s, Yet Crime Dominates City’s Mayoral Race
Why It Matters
With Los Angeles’s June 2 mayoral primary approaching, public safety has emerged as the dominant campaign issue — even as the city’s actual crime data tells a markedly different story. California’s largest city is experiencing some of its lowest violent crime rates in a generation, yet challengers to Mayor Karen Bass are using concerns about visible disorder, homelessness, and drug use to make the case that residents remain unsafe under her leadership.
What Happened
Homicide rates in Los Angeles have dropped to levels not recorded since the 1960s. Neighborhoods that previously struggled with persistent gang violence have experienced extended stretches without shootings, and the high-profile follow-home robberies and street takeovers that drew widespread attention in prior years have largely faded.
Despite those improvements, the candidates challenging Bass have centered their campaigns on the argument that she has failed to deliver on public safety. Former reality television personality Spencer Pratt has attacked her from the right, focusing on homeless encampments and open drug use. City Councilmember Nithya Raman, a progressive and former Bass ally, has attacked from the left, arguing that the mayor’s increased spending on the Los Angeles Police Department has come at the direct expense of parks, street maintenance, and other city services.
Former City Council member Mike Bonin said Pratt’s traction in the race reflects Bass’s failure — and that of other candidates — to counter a persistent public perception that Los Angeles is dangerous, regardless of what the underlying data shows.
By the Numbers
-
$15 billion — the citywide budget approved by the Los Angeles City Council for the upcoming fiscal year, which includes funding for 510 new police officers — roughly enough to offset attrition and hold staffing steady.
8,600 — the current number of sworn LAPD officers, down from Bass’s 2022 campaign pledge to restore staffing to 9,500, despite her administration negotiating higher starting salaries and retention bonuses with the police union.
$2.72 million — the amount Pratt raised in the most recent campaign finance reporting period, nearly ten times the amount Bass raised in the same window.
Less than $1 million — the amount Raman has raised, leaving her trailing both Pratt and Bass significantly in fundraising.
The Candidates’ Positions
Pratt has leaned heavily into social media to amplify a message that Democratic leadership has allowed Los Angeles to deteriorate. He has called for treating homeless encampments as “grave-disability zones” and has argued that existing laws, if enforced, are sufficient — without the need for new legislation or task forces. His campaign has not offered detailed policy mechanisms beyond cracking down on visible homelessness.
Raman, who called for defunding the LAPD when she first ran for office in 2020, has since voted for some budgets that increased law enforcement spending — a shift she has not fully reconciled publicly. She has said she would expand unarmed emergency response programs, work with the LAPD to improve 911 response times for calls that do not require armed officers, and appoint reform-oriented leadership to the Police Commission. She has also stated that LAPD staffing should not be reduced further, citing response-time concerns.
Bass, meanwhile, has drawn criticism from her own political base for what former ally Bonin described as an unexpectedly strong embrace of law enforcement. Representatives for both Bass and Pratt did not respond to requests for comment.
Zoom Out
The disconnect between improving crime statistics and public perception of safety is not unique to Los Angeles. Across the country, urban mayors have struggled to translate genuine reductions in violent crime into political capital, particularly when visible street-level disorder — homelessness, drug use, property crime — remains prominent. Communities in other California cities have also wrestled with public safety concerns, including in San Diego, where a series of high-profile incidents have spurred civic organizing around crime and community response.
What’s Next
Los Angeles voters head to the polls on June 2 for the primary. If no candidate secures a majority, the top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff election. Public safety and LAPD funding are expected to remain central issues through the final stretch of campaigning, with Pratt’s fundraising advantage giving him significant capacity for a late advertising push.