Why It Matters
Federal forecasters are predicting a quieter Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, marking a notable shift after years of above-normal storm activity. The outlook affects emergency preparedness planning and insurance markets across coastal states from Texas to the Carolinas.
What Happened
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21, forecasting between 8 and 14 named storms during the June 1 through November 30 season. Of those, forecasters expect 3 to 6 to strengthen into hurricanes, with only 1 to 3 reaching major hurricane status—defined as maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour.
NOAA officials cited a 55% chance the season will finish below normal activity levels. The primary factor suppressing storm formation is the likely development of an El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean.
By the Numbers
The forecast falls below the modern seasonal average of approximately 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The 2025 season saw no U.S. hurricane landfalls—the first such occurrence in more than a decade. Damage from 2025 storms totaled $10.55 billion, most of it caused by Hurricane Melissa, which struck Jamaica with 185-mile-per-hour winds and tied as the strongest Atlantic basin landfall on record.
Melissa’s central pressure at landfall measured 892 millibars, matching the 1936 Labor Day hurricane for the lowest central pressure ever recorded in a landfalling storm.
Zoom Out
El Niño conditions—the periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean—increase vertical wind shear in the Atlantic. Wind shear refers to changes in wind speed and direction at different altitudes, which can break apart developing hurricanes or prevent their formation entirely. By contrast, La Niña conditions reduce wind shear and create an environment more conducive to rapid storm intensification.
The 2025 season underperformed preseason forecasts that had projected as many as 19 named storms, raising questions about the reliability of long-range hurricane prediction models.
What’s Next
National Weather Service director Ken Graham cautioned that uncertainty remains despite the below-normal forecast. Officials emphasized that residents along the Southeast and Gulf coasts should not become complacent, noting that a single landfalling hurricane can define an entire season. The official Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.