Why It Matters
Alaska’s primary election system allows the top four vote-getters to advance to November regardless of party affiliation, creating incentives for candidates to strategically withdraw before the general election to avoid splitting votes. With millions in outside spending aimed at reshaping the primary field and ranked-choice voting expected to eliminate candidates with “exhausted” ballots, the state’s election mechanics are driving behind-the-scenes negotiations that could reshape who appears on the November ballot.
What Happened
As Alaska’s primary election approached on Tuesday, Democratic gubernatorial candidates Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Tom Begich discussed potential withdrawal strategies depending on how they finished in the field. Republicans have engaged in similar calculations for months, with U.S. Senate candidate Dan Sullivan telling the Chicago Tribune he remains uncertain whether he would stay in the race if he finishes in the top four.
The state’s election system creates unusual dynamics. The top four primary finishers advance to November’s general election, where ranked-choice voting eliminates the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes each round until a winner emerges. This mechanism has produced unexpect results in prior elections: in the 2022 U.S. House primary, two Republican finishers withdrew after the primary results, and when the House general election proceeded, Eric Hafner, an imprisoned Democratic candidate, was eliminated first with fewer than half his votes transferring to Mary Peltola.
Bernadette Wilson, who entered the gubernatorial race in May 2025 as a Republican candidate, pledged publicly to withdraw if she finished behind another Republican. The Valley Republican Women’s group has run advertisements urging Republicans to “vote the primary, consolidate the vote” and avoid splitting the field among their candidates.
Nonpartisan gubernatorial candidate Meda DeWitt stated at a Soldotna forum that she would remain in the race regardless of her primary finish. The gubernatorial field contains 17 candidates total, all vying to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy.
By the Numbers
17 — candidates in the gubernatorial race
4 — number of primary vote-getters who advance to the general election
$2 million — spending by national groups attempting to boost lesser-known candidates into the final four
May 2025 — when Bernadette Wilson entered the gubernatorial race
Zoom Out
Alaska’s primary system, adopted in 2020, has repeatedly confounded political expectations. In prior elections, voters casting ranked-choice ballots ranked only one or two candidates, leaving ballots “exhausted” when their choices were eliminated. This phenomenon has allowed lower-preference candidates to win races by default as higher-preference votes scattered across multiple options.
The state faces broader questions about its election model itself: Alaska Elections Official Argues Blank Financial Forms Acceptable for Candidates Seeking Office has raised questions about candidate filing requirements, while the state holds a ballot measure in November that would repeal the current system entirely. Measure 2 will ask voters to return to a traditional primary and general election structure.
Outside groups have demonstrated significant interest in shaping Alaska’s primary outcomes, with more than $2 million directed toward recruiting and promoting specific candidates into the final four. This spending reflects national recognition that Alaska’s open primary structure creates opportunities for well-funded actors to influence which candidates survive to the general election.
What’s Next
The primary vote occurs Tuesday, establishing which four candidates advance to the November general election. After results are announced, candidates who finish outside the top four will face decisions about whether to endorse remaining candidates or encourage their supporters to rank specific choices on the November ballot. The outcome will also provide a real-time test of whether candidates follow through on stated withdrawal pledges, and whether the ranked-choice voting mechanism again produces “exhausted” ballots that shift outcomes in unexpected directions. Meanwhile, the passage of Measure 2 in November could fundamentally reshape how Alaska conducts future elections.