Why It Matters
South Dakota’s Republican gubernatorial race will be decided in a July 28 runoff, and the two remaining candidates are drawing sharp contrasts on criminal justice — a policy area with direct implications for public safety, state spending, and corrections reform. The clash at the state convention offers voters a preview of the fault lines heading into the final stretch.
What Happened
Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden and incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden delivered back-to-back speeches at the South Dakota Republican Convention in Rapid City on June 26, with prison policy emerging as the central point of contention. The event was held at The Monument events center, and each candidate was allotted 15 minutes — the speaking order determined by a coin flip, with Doeden going first.
Doeden put the state’s recidivism record front and center, arguing that South Dakota has failed to rehabilitate those it releases from incarceration. Rhoden, responding shortly after, acknowledged the problem while pointing to infrastructure investments already underway during his tenure.
The two advanced to the runoff after no candidate cleared the 35% threshold in the June 2 primary. Doeden led that contest with 31% of the vote; Rhoden finished at 25%. The two were part of a four-way primary field.
By the Numbers
50% — South Dakota’s recidivism rate, measured as the share of released prisoners who return within three years. Doeden described the figure as the third worst in the country.
$650 million — the projected cost of a new men’s prison facility currently under construction in northeast Sioux Falls, a project Rhoden pushed through the legislature.
145 years old — the age of the existing Sioux Falls penitentiary the new facility is intended to replace.
July 28 — the date South Dakota Republicans will cast ballots in the runoff to select their nominee.
The Candidates’ Arguments
Doeden framed South Dakota’s recidivism problem as a failure of leadership, contrasting the state’s performance unfavorably with more politically liberal states. “Our recidivism rate has peaked at 50% — third worst in the country,” he said. “We have a higher recidivism rate than almost every liberal state in the country.”
Rhoden, who became governor in January 2025 following Kristi Noem’s resignation to lead the federal Department of Homeland Security in the Trump administration, cast himself as the candidate best positioned to unify the party and drive results. “We absolutely need somebody that can bring our party together and unify people and move an agenda forward,” he said. “And I’m that guy.”
On the substance, Rhoden pointed to the new prison project — approved by legislators in September — as evidence of action on corrections infrastructure. He also highlighted his record of signing legislation banning carbon-capture pipeline projects from using eminent domain, as well as multiple bills aimed at lowering property taxes for homeowners.
Zoom Out
South Dakota’s runoff comes amid broader Republican debates over criminal justice and corrections spending. High recidivism rates have become a flashpoint in several states, with some Republican governors pushing longer sentences and tougher supervision while others advocate workforce and reentry programs as cost-saving alternatives. The $650 million prison project also reflects a national trend of aging corrections infrastructure requiring costly replacement.
The convention itself drew some attention beyond the gubernatorial race. The state Republican Party initially restricted media access to a speech by U.S. Sen. John Thune on Thursday; party officials later characterized the incident as a misunderstanding. South Dakota’s political landscape has seen notable shifts recently, with figures across the party navigating both national dynamics and state-specific concerns heading into the 2026 cycle.
What’s Next
Doeden and Rhoden will continue campaigning through July 28, when registered Republicans will choose their nominee for governor. The winner will be the heavy favorite in the general election in a state that has leaned reliably Republican at the statewide level. With recidivism and corrections now established as a defining issue in the race, both candidates are likely to face continued scrutiny over their specific proposals for addressing the problem. Separately, South Dakota regulators have also been active on utility policy, approving a major merger that will reshape the state’s energy landscape.