Why It Matters
A new internal poll suggests Florida’s 13th Congressional District, currently held by Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, could be more competitive than expected heading into the 2026 midterm cycle. The survey indicates Luna carries net-negative approval ratings among her own constituents, a potential vulnerability as Democrats recruit challengers across competitive House districts nationwide.
What Happened
Public Policy Polling conducted a survey on behalf of Democratic challenger Leela Gray’s campaign, finding Luna leading Gray by just two percentage points — 41% to 39% — a margin that falls within the poll’s 4-point margin of error. Gray is a retired U.S. Army Brigadier General making her first run for Congress.
Despite a 47-point name recognition gap in Luna’s favor across all voters, Gray leads among independent voters by 10 points, 39% to 29%. PPP analyst Jim Williams noted that the gap between Luna’s name recognition advantage and her narrow overall lead reflects a meaningful enthusiasm deficit for the incumbent.
When pollsters provided voters with information about Gray’s military background and biographical details, the numbers shifted further. In the informed ballot, Gray led Luna 44% to 40%, with her advantage among independents widening to 19 points.
By the Numbers
- 41% to 39% — Luna’s lead over Gray in the standard head-to-head matchup, within the margin of error
- 44% to 40% — Gray’s lead in the informed ballot, after voters received background information on the challenger
- 47 points — Luna’s name recognition advantage over Gray among all district voters
- 39% approve / 41% disapprove — Luna’s job approval rating in the district
- 39% approve / 56% disapprove — President Trump’s job approval among CD 13 registered voters, a net negative of 17 points
- 616 — registered voters surveyed May 19–20, 2026
Zoom Out
Florida’s 13th District, centered in the Pinellas County area, has drawn national Democratic attention as part of a broader House pickup strategy ahead of the midterms. Recruiting credentialed candidates with military backgrounds has been a deliberate Democratic tactic in swing districts, aimed at countering Republican national security messaging.
Internal polls commissioned by campaigns are designed to put favorable findings in public view and are typically released only when the numbers support the commissioning party’s narrative. Independent verification from nonpartisan pollsters would offer a more complete picture of the race’s competitiveness. Democrats are also contesting other statewide offices in Florida, as reflected in a separate survey showing Democrat Annette Taddeo leading in a head-to-head CFO matchup.
What’s Next
Gray’s campaign is using the poll results to build donor and volunteer momentum ahead of the 2026 election. Luna has not publicly responded to the polling data. As the November election approaches, independent surveys of the district will be closely watched to determine whether the race develops into a genuine toss-up or whether Luna’s institutional advantages — including name recognition and incumbency — prove decisive.
Gray said in a statement that district families are “watching grocery bills climb, insurance rates explode, and basic necessities become harder to afford,” framing her candidacy around economic concerns and a contrast with what she characterized as Luna’s record in Washington.