Why It Matters
For South Carolina and other Southeast coastal states, the start of Atlantic hurricane season on June 1 brings renewed urgency around storm preparedness — even in years when federal forecasters project quieter-than-average activity. NOAA’s 2026 outlook offers some reassurance, but officials are warning residents not to treat a calmer forecast as a reason to lower their guard.
What Happened
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21, projecting below-normal storm activity for the basin. The agency cited the likely development of a significant El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean as the dominant factor expected to suppress tropical storm formation this season.
NOAA forecasters are calling for between 8 and 14 named storms during the season, which runs from June 1 through November 30. Of those, forecasters expect 3 to 6 to strengthen into hurricanes, with only 1 to 3 projected to reach major hurricane status — defined as a storm with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour.
NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham acknowledged the limits of seasonal forecasting. “Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” Graham said, adding that residents should finalize preparedness plans before any storm threatens. “It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster echoed that message in remarks issued earlier this month. “Hurricane season begins on June 1, and now is the time to prepare,” McMaster said. “Team South Carolina is ready, but every family should have a plan in place before a storm threatens our state.”
By the Numbers
- 8–14 named storms projected for the 2026 season
- 3–6 expected to strengthen into hurricanes
- 1–3 forecast to reach major hurricane intensity (Category 3 or higher)
- 55% probability NOAA assigns to a below-normal season outcome
- 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes — the modern seasonal averages the 2026 forecast falls below
How El Niño Affects Hurricane Formation
El Niño refers to the periodic warming of central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters. During El Niño years, increased vertical wind shear — shifts in wind speed and direction between roughly 5,000 and 35,000 feet of altitude — tends to disrupt developing tropical systems in the Atlantic, often preventing them from organizing or intensifying.
The inverse condition, La Niña, involves a cooling of those same Pacific waters and is associated with reduced wind shear, which creates more favorable conditions for Atlantic storm formation and rapid intensification. The 2025 season unfolded during lingering La Niña conditions, though it ultimately fell short of many aggressive early forecasts.
Zoom Out
The 2025 Atlantic season defied widespread predictions of high activity. Multiple forecasting groups had projected as many as 19 named storms, driven by warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Instead, the season underperformed significantly — and notably, no hurricane made landfall anywhere in the continental United States, the first such outcome in more than a decade. Total damage for the season came in at approximately $10.55 billion, with the bulk caused by Hurricane Melissa, which struck Jamaica with 185 mph sustained winds.
Independent forecasting organizations including Colorado State University and The Weather Company have issued outlooks largely consistent with NOAA’s below-normal projection for 2026, though meteorologists note that confidence in early-season forecasts remains limited.
Despite the subdued overall forecast, NOAA officials cautioned that competing atmospheric signals — including unusually warm sea surface temperatures and weakened trade winds in parts of the basin — could still create conditions favorable for individual storm development and intensification.
What’s Next
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially opens June 1. Emergency management officials across South Carolina and the broader Southeast coast are urging residents to complete preparedness plans before that date, including reviewing evacuation routes and stocking emergency supplies. Forecasting agencies typically update their seasonal outlooks in August, when more atmospheric data becomes available and forecast confidence improves.