Why It Matters
President Trump faces one of the most consequential foreign policy decisions of his second term: whether to resume military strikes against Iran or accept a framework agreement to end the ongoing conflict. The outcome could reshape U.S. influence in the Middle East, affect global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and determine the trajectory of Iran’s nuclear program.
What Happened
Speaking publicly on Saturday, Trump said he would meet with senior advisers — including special envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner — to review Iran’s latest negotiating response. Vice President Vance was also expected to participate in those discussions.
Trump put the odds of reaching an agreement at a coin flip. “I think one of two things will happen: either I hit them harder than they have ever been hit, or we are going to sign a deal that is good,” he said, adding that he expects to reach a decision by Sunday.
Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir, who has been serving as a mediator between Washington and Tehran, departed the Iranian capital Saturday after meeting with senior officials there. Pakistan described the talks as showing “encouraging progress toward a final understanding,” though no formal agreement was reached. A revised draft agreement reviewed by Trump’s team over the weekend emerged from those Iran-Pakistan discussions.
Iran’s foreign ministry said the two sides were in the final stage of negotiating a memorandum of understanding to end the war. Under the proposed framework, the MOU would address a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, removal of a U.S. blockade, and the release of frozen Iranian assets — followed by a 30- to 60-day period of more detailed negotiations.
Trump also indicated he would hold a conference call Saturday with Gulf-region leaders, with the leaders of Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey expected to participate. A senior Israeli official confirmed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his team are in active communication with the White House regarding the emerging framework. Trump described Netanyahu as “torn” on the deal, rejecting suggestions that the Israeli prime minister was simply opposed to any agreement.
Points of Friction
Trump stated he would only accept an agreement that addresses uranium enrichment and the disposition of Iran’s existing nuclear stockpile — issues that are unlikely to be resolved in detail under the proposed MOU framework. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed that position Saturday, saying Iran must surrender its enriched uranium and that the Strait of Hormuz must be fully reopened “without tolls.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said regional leaders are split on what to urge the president to do. Some have pushed for renewed strikes to weaken the regime and extract better terms. Others — along with some White House advisers — have counseled accepting the current offer, arguing that Iran retains enough capability to disrupt Gulf oil infrastructure and threaten navigation through the Strait of Hormuz even after a military campaign.
Graham expressed skepticism about that latter argument. “Count me as a strong skeptic that Iran can’t be prevented from terrorizing the Strait of Hormuz,” he said, adding that he remained hopeful for a positive outcome.
For his part, Trump acknowledged the divide among his advisers, noting that “some people would much rather have a deal and others would rather resume the war.”
By the Numbers
- 5 regional mediating nations involved: Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan
- 30–60 days of follow-on negotiations anticipated under the proposed MOU framework
- “50/50” — Trump’s own assessment of the probability of reaching a deal
- At least 3 heads of state — Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey — expected on Saturday’s conference call
What’s Next
Trump is expected to announce a decision by Sunday on whether to pursue the memorandum of understanding or order a resumption of military operations. The proposed MOU framework covers the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and a pathway to nuclear talks, though the most difficult issues — enrichment caps and existing stockpiles — remain unresolved.
Regional mediators continued intensive back-channel communications with both Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. negotiators through Saturday. Trump has separately engaged Muslim-majority nation leaders on post-conflict regional stability, including a potential peace framework involving Israel. Rubio indicated additional announcements could come as early as Saturday evening.