Louisiana GOP Primary Tests Whether Cassidy Can Survive His Vote to Convict Trump
Why It Matters
Louisiana’s Republican Senate primary is shaping up as one of the most closely watched tests of party loyalty versus legislative independence heading into the 2026 election cycle. The outcome could signal how much influence former political controversies — and direct presidential intervention — still hold over Republican primary voters at the state level.
What Happened
Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict Donald Trump following the January 6th Capitol breach, is now seeking a third term in the U.S. Senate. Cassidy is the only one of those seven senators still actively running for reelection rather than retiring.
He faces two main primary challengers: Rep. Julia Letlow, who carries President Trump’s direct endorsement, and former congressman and state treasurer John Fleming, who served in the Trump administration and has remained competitive in polling. The primary is set for Saturday, with the top two finishers advancing to a runoff next month if no candidate clears 50 percent of the vote.
Cassidy currently chairs the Senate health committee, a position he has used to negotiate major federal legislation, including the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, through which he says he has directed billions of dollars in federal funding to Louisiana recovery and development projects.
The Candidate Profiles
Letlow entered Congress in 2021 after winning a special election for the House seat her late husband Luke was set to assume before his death from COVID-19 in 2020. She sits on the House Appropriations Committee and has aligned closely with Trump’s legislative agenda. Letlow introduced the “Parents Bill of Rights Act,” which would allow parents to review school library materials and require schools to notify parents if a child requests to change pronouns, locker rooms, or sports team participation.
She says she was personally recruited by Trump to challenge Cassidy. “I get a call from the big man — and by that, I don’t mean the Lord,” Letlow told supporters at a Lafayette campaign event, referring to Trump’s request that she run.
The Cassidy campaign has attempted to portray Letlow as insufficiently conservative, citing her background in academic administration and past exposure to diversity, equity, and inclusion programs. Letlow has pushed back, saying she actively worked against DEI initiatives during her time in Congress.
By the Numbers
- 7 — Republican senators who voted to convict Trump after January 6th
- 6 — Of those senators who have since retired rather than seek reelection
- 1 — Cassidy, the lone holdout still running for office
- 50% — Threshold required to avoid a runoff in Saturday’s primary
- 3 — Senate terms Cassidy would serve if reelected
Divided Voters
On the ground in Louisiana, Republican voters appear sharply divided. At a crawfish festival in Breaux Bridge, retired deputy sheriff Kevin Dupree made his position plain: “If you cross me, I probably won’t trust you anymore. I think his political career in Louisiana is finished.”
But St. Martin Parish GOP Chair Kelby Daigle is backing Cassidy and expressed concern about what Trump-centered politics means for the party’s long-term identity. “Conservatism is about ideas and principles,” Daigle said, “and they always make it about Trump.”
Trump supporters in the state are equally direct. Lafayette Parish activist Dustin Jacque Arnaud said he is voting for Letlow specifically because Trump asked Louisiana Republicans to do so.
Zoom Out
Cassidy’s race is part of a broader national pattern in which Republican incumbents with records of crossing Trump face structural pressure in primaries, even when they have strong legislative track records. National political analysts note that while the overall mood may be tilting against Republicans in some regions, redistricting and primary mechanics could insulate loyalists from general-election consequences. The Louisiana race may also inform Democratic strategy in the state, where former President Biden has already weighed in on the governor’s race by endorsing a high-profile candidate.
What’s Next
Louisiana Republican primary voters cast ballots Saturday. If no candidate receives a majority, the top two finishers will face off in a runoff the following month. Should Cassidy advance, he would still face a general election in November. A loss in the primary would mark the last of the seven Republican Trump-conviction votes to exit the Senate, closing a chapter on that post-January 6th moment in the GOP.