Oil Prices Climb as Trump Calls Iran Ceasefire Deal Near Dead
Why It Matters
Crude oil prices extended gains Tuesday after President Donald Trump signaled that ceasefire negotiations with Iran are effectively collapsing, raising fresh concerns about prolonged conflict in the Middle East and continued disruption to global energy markets.
What Happened
Trump, speaking to reporters, described the current ceasefire as “unbelievably weak” and dismissed Iran’s counterproposal to end the war as “garbage,” suggesting a diplomatic resolution remains far off. The president compared the ceasefire’s condition to a patient with roughly a one-percent chance of survival.
International benchmark Brent crude futures for July rose nearly 0.90% to $105.12 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June gained approximately 1% to $99.05 per barrel.
The U.S. and Israeli-led military campaign against Iran began on February 28. Since then, both WTI and Brent crude benchmarks have surged more than 40%, reflecting persistent supply concerns tied to the conflict.
By the Numbers
- $105.12/barrel — Brent crude July futures price on Tuesday
- $99.05/barrel — WTI June futures price on Tuesday
- 40%+ — Combined rise in WTI and Brent since the conflict began Feb. 28
- 2027 — Year Saudi Aramco CEO warns oil markets may not normalize if the Strait of Hormuz blockage extends past mid-June
Zoom Out
The Strait of Hormuz remains a central pressure point. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned Monday that even if the waterway reopened immediately, it would take months for global oil supply to rebalance — and that a delay of even a few more weeks could push market normalization well into 2027. Aramco is the world’s largest oil producer by volume.
Analysts at Citi noted in a research memo that oil prices have been volatile and could climb further if diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran remain stalled. Investment firm Dragonfly’s chief intelligence officer told a financial news program Tuesday that re-escalation of the conflict is a realistic scenario. He also noted that Trump may lean on Chinese President Xi Jinping to press Iran toward accepting U.S. terms during anticipated talks between Washington and Beijing later this week.
The oil market has been on edge since the Strait of Hormuz disruption rattled global energy flows, with prices swinging sharply on each diplomatic development or military signal from the region.
What’s Next
Market participants will closely watch any signals emerging from expected U.S.-China talks, which could serve as a potential back-channel to move Iran toward a settlement. Absent a breakthrough, traders and energy analysts are pricing in continued volatility, with the trajectory of crude prices likely tied to whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens before the mid-June threshold identified by Saudi Aramco’s leadership.
A sustained oil price above $100 per barrel would add pressure to consumer energy costs and broader inflation in the United States, complicating the economic outlook heading into the second half of 2026.