Why It Matters
California’s 2026 gubernatorial race is shaping up as one of the most unusual in recent state history, and a late-breaking development could have major consequences for which party controls Sacramento after November. President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Republican Steve Hilton in the June 2 primary has reshuffled the political calculus in a deeply blue state — and, according to political analysts, may have inadvertently helped Democrats avoid a worst-case electoral scenario.
The outcome of the primary will determine whether California Democrats face a competitive Republican challenger in November or cruise to another term in the governor’s mansion.
What Happened
President Trump endorsed Steve Hilton, a former television commentator running for California governor, in a post on his Truth Social platform late Sunday. Trump praised Hilton as “a truly fine man” and criticized outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom and California Democrats, saying the state had been run into the ground.
“Steve can turn it around, before it is too late, and, as President, I will help him to do so!” Trump wrote.
Hilton welcomed the endorsement, saying in a statement, “I’m grateful for the president’s support. Together, we can turn things around and make California truly golden again.”
The endorsement effectively elevated Hilton over fellow Republican candidate Chad Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff, who had been running neck-and-neck with Hilton in polling. Political observers say the move reduces — though does not eliminate — the possibility that two Republicans finish first and second in California’s top-two primary, the only scenario under which a Republican could win the governorship in November.
By the Numbers
61 — The total number of names that will appear on the California gubernatorial primary ballot on June 2.
Mid-teens — Where both Hilton and Bianco were polling, according to a recent Democratic internal poll, with neither Republican breaking away from the pack.
10% or below — The approximate ceiling for each of the eight serious Democratic candidates in the same polling.
~20% — The estimated vote share each Republican candidate would have needed to claim the top two spots and shut Democrats out of November’s general election.
4 weeks — The approximate time before mail voting begins in California, leaving limited time for Democratic candidates to consolidate support.
Zoom Out
California’s top-two primary system — in which the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party — has created unconventional dynamics before. In the 2024 U.S. Senate race, Democrat Adam Schiff’s campaign reportedly maneuvered to help Republican Steve Garvey finish second, ensuring Schiff faced a weaker general election opponent rather than fellow Democrat Katie Porter.
A similar strategy was reportedly being considered by Democratic-aligned groups in this governor’s race before Trump’s endorsement changed the equation. Rob Pyers of the California Target Book noted on X that Trump’s endorsement “likely frees up tens of millions of dollars for Democratic groups who would have otherwise had to spend heavily to elevate one of the two leading GOP gubernatorial candidates.”
The California race is being watched nationally as a test of whether Republicans can mount any credible challenge in the nation’s most populous state, or whether the party’s resources are better spent elsewhere in the 2026 midterm cycle. House Democrats are also preparing for broader midterm battles, including staging hearings focused on election security as the 2026 cycle heats up.
What’s Next
With the June 2 primary approaching and mail ballots set to go out within weeks, California Democrats face mounting pressure to consolidate behind a single frontrunner. Former Congresswoman Katie Porter, billionaire Tom Steyer, and Congressman Eric Swalwell are all polling near the top of the Democratic field, with no clear leader emerging.
Trump’s endorsement narrows but does not eliminate the possibility of a Republican 1-2 finish. If Hilton consolidates GOP support, he is positioned to likely advance to November — but political analysts note that a single Republican candidate would face steep odds in a general election against whichever Democrat secures the party’s nomination.
Democrats will need to settle their own primary scramble quickly. As one analyst noted, in a race this unpredictable, there are no sure things. California Democrats are simultaneously navigating redistricting pressures that could further complicate the party’s strategic planning heading into the fall.
The California governor’s race will remain one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 midterm cycle as both parties assess their paths forward ahead of the June 2 vote.