Record-Low Snowpack Threatens Colorado Rafting Season and the Rural Economies It Sustains
Why It Matters
Colorado’s rafting industry generates between $50 million and $75 million annually for communities along the Upper Arkansas River Valley — and a historic drought year is putting that economic engine at serious risk. With snowpack across the state’s river basins at record lows heading into summer, outfitters, guides, and the rural towns that depend on tourist spending are preparing for one of the most difficult seasons in recent memory.
What Happened
An exceptionally dry winter combined with the warmest March on record in Colorado history depleted an already thin snowpack, leaving the Arkansas River basin at just 24% of normal as of late May — the point at which the commercial rafting season typically begins. River flows are believed to have already peaked for the year, well below levels needed for a full season of commercial operations.
The Arkansas River corridor between Leadville and Cañon City, known as the Arkansas Headwaters Recreation Area, is the backbone of Colorado’s rafting economy. Roughly 45 licensed outfitters operate in that stretch, collectively drawing as many as 250,000 commercial rafting customers per season, with nearly three-quarters traveling from out of state.
Compounding the flow problem, water managers say there will likely be no releases this year from the Voluntary Flow Management Program — an arrangement in place since 1990 that historically moves water from Twin Lakes to Pueblo Reservoir each summer specifically to support river recreation. With cities and agricultural users on the Front Range facing their own severe shortfalls, recreational water use is not a priority. If confirmed, this would mark only the second year since the program’s founding that it contributes zero supplemental flow.
By the Numbers
- 24% — Arkansas River basin snowpack as a percentage of normal in late May 2026
- 450,000+ — annual commercial rafting visitors statewide
- $50M–$75M — estimated annual economic impact of Arkansas River rafting on local communities
- 68% — drop in statewide rafting visitation during the comparable drought year of 2002
- 469,549 — statewide commercial rafting visitors in 2025, down from a pandemic-era peak of 622,186 in 2021
Industry Response: Adapting, Not Stopping
Outfitters who survived prior drought years say they have a playbook. Brian Ellis, who guided on the Arkansas in 2002 and now owns Wilderness Aware Rafting in Buena Vista, said the industry learned from that brutal season and refined low-water techniques again in 2012. “We are going to adapt,” Ellis said, adding that guide teams are prepared and guests will still have strong experiences.
Practical adjustments will include smaller boats, more use of inflatable kayaks and stand-up paddleboards, longer trip durations, and a shift in commercial traffic toward lower sections of the river — like the Royal Gorge — where water levels tend to remain more navigable. Some outfitters are also steering guests toward alternative activities such as ziplines and adventure courses, as they did during previous lean years.
Andy Neinas, who owns Echo Canyon Rafting near the Royal Gorge, said the industry accepts the reality of water scarcity. “We need to think about the health and welfare of wildlife, habitat and our food supply,” Neinas said, noting that recreation should not rank above those concerns in a drought year.
Zoom Out
The 2026 season echoes conditions in 2002 and 2012, when drought years dramatically reduced river flows and commercial rafting volume. Historical U.S. Geological Survey data from the Nathrop gauge on the Arkansas shows July flow averages dipping as low as 247.7 cubic feet per second in 2002 — among the lowest recorded since measurements began in 1965. Western water scarcity is increasingly a structural concern, not just a seasonal one, as states throughout the Colorado River basin face long-term supply pressures. Economic anxiety is also layered on top of the water situation: outfitters report that consumer caution over fuel prices, grocery costs, and broader global uncertainty is leading to a wave of last-minute vacation bookings rather than the advance reservations that help businesses plan.
What’s Next
Outfitters across the Arkansas Valley are adjusting fleet configurations and guide training as the season opens. Water managers will continue monitoring reservoir levels to determine whether any supplemental flows become feasible. Downstream agricultural and municipal users will have first claim on available water under Colorado’s prior appropriation system. The full economic toll of the 2026 season on rafting-dependent communities will likely not be clear until fall.